I reserve the rights to NA any added options.
Clarification: gpt2-chatbot include the three variants, i.e. gpt2-chatbot, "i-am-a-good-gpt2-chatbot", and "i-am-also-a-good-gpt2-chatbot"
related market:
Related questions
The system prompt says it's October 2023. (I just ran a few tests to confirm, and it's guesses about events after that point were complete hallucinations.)
@MugaSofer I am debating if I should resolve according to GPT4o or wait till we find out what the other two variants (gpt2-chatbot, i-am-a-good-gpt2-chatbot) are?
@MugaSofer For example, what if any of the two variants have a later knowledge cutoff? (though very unlikely)
@Sss19971997 Obviously it would benefit me to have it resolved immediately.
How would you resolve it if some fit the criterion and some didn't? (For any question.) You did already resolve several options based on things that we only know for sure apply to one of the models.
@Sss19971997 In that case you're safe to resolve YES; at least the main variant's knowledge cutoff "is in or before Jan 2024".
@Sss19971997 I mean Sam Altman specifically said it wasn't. It'll be strange if other markets about it resolve YES.
@Sss19971997 Mira's market's definition is very broad and would have included new models in the GPT-4 family even if they were downgrades in capabilities. Mira is betting NO in similar markets.
@AviD I am like very certain OpenAI is the creator, but I don't know if this is enough to resolve the market.
Resolves NO @Sss19971997, Sam Altman said it's not:
https://www.axios.com/2024/05/02/mystery-chatbot-openai-gpt2
Speaking on Wednesday at Harvard University, Altman told an audience that the mystery bot is not GPT-4.5, what many see as the likely next major update to GPT-4.
@Sss19971997 I don't mind a few days in either case, are you expecting it to be available on YouTube?
@chrisjbillington I have seen multiple sources confirming the GPT4.5 claim, i figure i can resolve early.
maybe that was not necessary. could have waited a bit longer.
@Sss19971997 Oh I definitely think there's enough evidence that he said it to resolve. Was interested in a video because perhaps he said some things that could resolve other markets is all!
@chrisjbillington I regret. also-gpt2 is GPT4o, and it is debatable if GPT4o is GPT4.5. This should have resolved YES.