Spindle's calibration
Grade: D, Score: -9.93
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Spindle bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%
- Will the linked market fall to less than 15% for at least 12 hours before March 12th Eastern Time?NOṀ4,000
- Will the word TRANCHE (or TRAUNCHE) appear in at least 2 above-the-fold publications not referencing you-know-who or any of his markets by the end of April 15?NOṀ1,739
- Skew will get a traunche for xmasYESṀ1,000