Will any NATO country go to war by 2025?
Will any NATO country go to war by 2025?
6
150Ṁ189resolved Jan 11
Resolved
NO1H
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1D
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Resolves YES if any NATO member state becomes directly involved (through troop deployment and resource engagement) in any war before midnight 12/31/2024. A war is defined as a military conflict in which there are over 1,000 total casualties within a year period. Resolves NO otherwise.
NATO membership status at time of first engagement is what is relevant. Resolves N/A if NATO ceases to exist.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
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