Description:

Both men have built launch vehicles explicitly aimed at the Moon — SpaceX's Starship (including the Artemis HLS variant) and Blue Origin's Blue Moon lander, launched on New Glenn. Neither has committed publicly to flying himself. Bezos has flown to suborbital space on New Shepard (July 2021); Musk has never flown to space at all.

This market asks whether either founder will personally make the trip.

Resolution criteria:

Resolves YES if, before 1 January 2040, either Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos is aboard a crewed spacecraft that reaches at least lunar distance, where the spacecraft's primary launch vehicle and crewed element are both built by SpaceX or Blue Origin (or a majority-owned successor entity).

"Reaches at least lunar distance" is satisfied by any of: a free-return or powered lunar flyby, lunar orbit insertion, or a landing on the lunar surface. A surface landing is not required.

Clarifications:

• Both founders count. Only one of them needs to fly.

• The vehicle must be one of their companies. Musk flying on Blue Moon resolves YES; Bezos flying on Starship resolves YES.

• Flying as a passenger on an SLS/Orion mission resolves NO, even if a SpaceX or Blue Origin lander is part of the mission architecture, unless the founder personally boards that lander and it travels to the Moon with them aboard. (In practice: boarding HLS in lunar orbit after arriving on Orion resolves YES.)

• Suborbital or Earth-orbital flights resolve NO regardless of duration.

• A cislunar station resolves YES only if lunar distance is actually reached.

• If either founder dies before flying, this does not resolve early — the market runs until the close date in case the other flies.

• Resolves NO if the flight is attempted and the vehicle is lost before reaching lunar distance with the founder aboard, and no subsequent qualifying flight occurs before close.