What kind of space mission will involve the next death?

Question

Resolution criteria:

Resolves based on the first confirmed human fatality that occurs from the market creation date onward. Options are determined by the mission's overall destination/purpose, not the phase in which death occurs — e.g., a fatality during launch of an Artemis mission resolves "Lunar crewed missions", not "Earth orbit".

Deaths occurring from lift-off throughout reentry and landing are included. Deaths during on-ground tests and activities before liftoff or after landing are excluded.

Resolves N/A in case no fatality occurs before 2031.

I reserve the possibility to refine the market text to avoid ambiguities.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Earth orbit (ISS, Tiangong, or any crewed orbital vehicle/station), followed by Suborbital tourism/test flights and Lunar crewed missions (transit, orbit, or surface) are most likely. See the market for live updates (2 traders, as of Aug 4, 2026).

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