I wonder when or if Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a serious, substantial, and prolonged public falling out. This means they engage in significant negative exchanges lasting over a couple of weeks, involving multiple substantial criticisms of each other on major issues—not just minor disagreements or single-issue disputes. Light-hearted remarks, minor critiques, or respectful criticism of some decisions while still maintaining their relationship don’t count. It has to be somewhat personal.
I won’t be betting on this market.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ2,152 | |
| 2 | Ṁ951 | |
| 3 | Ṁ890 | |
| 4 | Ṁ703 | |
| 5 | Ṁ673 |
People are also trading
I resolved the market "2024-2025".
Why? I decided to go with the spirit of the question rather than the exact wording of the resolution criteria. What happened between Elon and Trump was clearly a very serious public failing out as evident by the comments they exchanged over social media. They weren't light-hearted remarks, minor critiques, or respectful criticism of some decisions. However, one could object to this resolution by saying that the negative exchanges didn't really last a couple of weeks which I understand. For anyone who feels strongly about this just send me a message and I will refund you whatever you lost on this market (this doesn't make it right but maybe helps a little).
I resolved the market "2024-2025".
Why? I decided to go with the spirit of the question rather than the exact wording of the resolution criteria. What happened between Elon and Trump was clearly a very serious public failing out as evident by the comments they exchanged over social media. They weren't light-hearted remarks, minor critiques, or respectful criticism of some decisions. However, one could object to this resolution by saying that the negative exchanges didn't really last a couple of weeks which I understand. For anyone who feels strongly about this just send me a message and I will refund you whatever you lost on this market (this doesn't make it right but maybe helps a little).
@Soli should this resolve? after almost 3w I haven't seen any evidence they're back together or anywhere close to good terms. Elon's "regret" seems to have put a stop to the public war of posts, but hasn't really broken through Trump's ghosting. And Elon still seems deeply hurt by the rejection of his NASA pick, just last week calling the top level Trump aide who blocked his suggestion "a snake".
@Soli seems good to me. While they walked back from active sparring they're still clearly not back on good terms.
@Soli I object on the basis of "lasting over a couple of weeks". To me the feud ended on June 10th https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump%E2%80%93Musk_feud
I've lost on this bet @Soli I think this should resolve to the current year by almost any reasonable definition of "falling out."
"Weeks long" seems like a technicality
@sahaj i've had a few serious friendship crashouts but never had any of them imply I'm a pedophile to 220M followers
@dgga I'd argue the magnitude of statements doesn't matter. The market specifies a long timeline, and from what I can see, the negative exchanges ended in a matter of days.
@KJW_01294 No. He said after in a podcast that he was open to reconciling:
“I guess I could, but we have to straighten out the country,” the president replied when asked if he and Musk could ever get back on good terms.
So you’re saying the market is now a “will they reconcile” market, not a “will they break up” market.
If that’s where you are, you’ll never resolve fairly. I’m out.
(EDIT: ooops not market creator, ignore me)
@KJW_01294 he's not the market author and represents less than 1% of the traders' view of how this market should be resolved.
For example I vehemently disagree with him, think this market should have been resolved already, and keep buying the 'never' -option to 10%.
@KJW_01294 No, that's not what I'm saying, I was simply trying to negate what you said.
What I am trying to say is that the dispute b/w Elon and Trump a few weeks ago doesn't fulfill the "significant negative exchanges lasting over a couple of weeks" criteria (even though the allegations and exchanges were serious).
Regardless, I am not the market creator and you shouldn't be making decisions based of what I'm saying.
@sahaj I see, but the podcast question was about “returning to good terms,” with Trump replying in the negative that there would have to be changes. If we get no public comment, we should assume that they’re on bad terms, which I strongly feel should count.
(Sorry for assuming you were market creator earlier. No coffee yet this morning.)