When will Trump and Elon “break up” / have a serious public falling out?
202
1kṀ71k
Dec 31
79%
2024-2025
11%
2026-2028
10%
later/never

I wonder when or if Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a serious, substantial, and prolonged public falling out. This means they engage in significant negative exchanges lasting over a couple of weeks, involving multiple substantial criticisms of each other on major issues—not just minor disagreements or single-issue disputes. Light-hearted remarks, minor critiques, or respectful criticism of some decisions while still maintaining their relationship don’t count. It has to be somewhat personal.

I won’t be betting on this market.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
bought Ṁ50 NO

What's happened so far doesn't fufill the criteria right?

@sahaj i've had a few serious friendship crashouts but never had any of them imply I'm a pedophile to 220M followers

@dgga I'd argue the magnitude of statements doesn't matter. The market specifies a long timeline, and from what I can see, the negative exchanges ended in a matter of days.

He deleted the major allegations a few days ago. I'd say their friendship will improve significantly, and that what has happened so far doesn't satisfy the market criteria.

Trump’s official announcement that he’s ending their relationship doesn’t count??

@KJW_01294 No. He said after in a podcast that he was open to reconciling:

“I guess I could, but we have to straighten out the country,” the president replied when asked if he and Musk could ever get back on good terms.

sold Ṁ8 YES

So you’re saying the market is now a “will they reconcile” market, not a “will they break up” market.

If that’s where you are, you’ll never resolve fairly. I’m out.

(EDIT: ooops not market creator, ignore me)

bought Ṁ350 NO

@KJW_01294 he's not the market author and represents less than 1% of the traders' view of how this market should be resolved.

For example I vehemently disagree with him, think this market should have been resolved already, and keep buying the 'never' -option to 10%.

@KJW_01294 No, that's not what I'm saying, I was simply trying to negate what you said.

What I am trying to say is that the dispute b/w Elon and Trump a few weeks ago doesn't fulfill the "significant negative exchanges lasting over a couple of weeks" criteria (even though the allegations and exchanges were serious).

Regardless, I am not the market creator and you shouldn't be making decisions based of what I'm saying.

@sahaj I see, but the podcast question was about “returning to good terms,” with Trump replying in the negative that there would have to be changes. If we get no public comment, we should assume that they’re on bad terms, which I strongly feel should count.

(Sorry for assuming you were market creator earlier. No coffee yet this morning.)

The criteria indicate need for a prolonged falling out, with significant negative exchanges over a couple of weeks.

@Chrisjohn don't think they're coming back from this

@Lorelai agreeee

@Lorelai I don’t think so either. But the criteria seems clear to wait and see for sure.

He just said trump is on epstein files

@Gugra it is getting worse by the minute

@Soli Are you still going to wait a couple weeks to resolve this?

Today lol

🍿

@Soli Not enough to trigger a market resolution, though, right?

@Quroe not yet but very close

bought Ṁ5 YES

Excellent news coverage. Thanks!

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy