The market will resolve yes if gpt2-chatbot turns out to be OpenAI's next-generation model such as GPT-4.5 or GPT-5. If the model is just a new version of GPT-4, then the market will resolve No.
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@Soli If it is not continue trained on GPT4 nor training from scratch but follows GPT4's recipe. At the same time, it demonstrated noticeable improvements in capabilities.
@traders i think gpt2-chatbot is both a variation of gpt-4 and openai’s next generation model - should i resolve N/A or 50%
@Soli Honestly I think all these questions should probably have been resolved N/A, given the ambiguity.
Resolving to 50% would be bad for those of us who bet NO, which would suck for me personally (I've really taken a beating over this whole thing), but it's defensible.
@MugaSofer I am open to resolving this as N/A. Out of curiosity, which other markets are you referring to?
@Soli Actually, re-checking, I think it was pretty much just https://manifold.markets/jim/is-gpt2chatbot-gpt5?r=TXVnYVNvZmVy. Felt like more in the chaos of the day.
(I bet 2k YES there; managed to sell before resolution but still lost about 1.5k. I then bet NO here as an attempt to recoup losses, on the assumption it would resolve the same, but that's 100% not your fault.)
@Soli It looks like the other major markets with wording along these lines were by @Joshua and resolved YES! So of the three market-makers, we've got one resolving NO, one resolving YES, and one somewhere in-between. sigh
I think that reinforces that you're right; it's really too ambiguous for a definitive resolution.
@MugaSofer I would be slightly annoyed if i were you though haha 😅. Let's wait for other participants in the market to share their opinions before we reach a conclusion. It is chaos when this happens but it is also why i enjoy creating questions. You can never think of all edge cases.
@Soli IMO this is a NO, but I'm biased because I'm holding NO. I did invest with the understanding that it would have to be something GPT-4.5/GPT-5 level, and I don't think it is. Don't get me wrong, it's probably better than that for the sole reason of it being available for free, but performance wise it isn't that big of a jump.
@ShadowyZephyr i think what makes gpt-4o openai’s next-generation model is the native audio and vision support
@ShadowyZephyr i wonder if this one can also output images and yes but this time you also have audio which is a significant improvement plus sam says it is cheaper to run
openai are the ones who determine if this model is their next generation model or not and they clearly label it as their flagship new model in their branding
@Soli Fine, then N/A. I still don't think it's GPT-4.5 level and there's a reason they didn't call it such. It's meant for accessibility, not raw performance (a noble goal)
There's discussion in this discord channel:
https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/1226568958891524197
if the model is regarded as OpenAI’s next generation model then it counts otherwise it doesn’t
Based on this wording I'm still pretty unsure what you'll choose..
@DanMan314 @Soli >If the model is just a new version of GPT-4, then the market will resolve No.
At this point, several other markets with similar wording have resolved NO.
(I'll be pretty unhappy if all the other markets where I bet YES resolved NO and this one, where I bet NO in the hope of recouping some of those losses, resolves YES...)
(FYI I'm assuming that it resolves identically to the "gpt-4.5" option in Soli's market "What is 'gpt2-chatbot'?")
@Sss19971997 what would constitue a major update for you?
i know the answer is a bit vauge but if the model is regarded as OpenAI’s next generation model then it counts otherwise it doesn’t
@Soli If it is not continue trained on GPT4 nor training from scratch but follows GPT4's recipe. At the same time, it demonstrated noticeable improvements in capabilities.
@Sss19971997 if OpenAI brands this as their next generation model then yes but i doubt they would do that