Add more answers yourself.
Multiple answers may resolve YES.
Some answers may still resolve YES if https://manifold.markets/DismalScientist/did-trump-get-shot resolves NO.
1,000
3.00@Sodra What sources (or is it opinions, polls, vibes, your subjective judgement?) will be used to resolve these? Thanks.
Perhaps some N/A but surely not all options? It seems to me the referenced market in the description reveals the author's intention to align with that market for the most obvious cases:
Some answers may still resolve YES if https://manifold.markets/DismalScientist/did-trump-get-shot resolves NO.
Since that market resolved YES, it suggests some options here should not contradict that, and as far as I can tell there's at least two options that can resolve based on that criteria: "There was no bullet wound to begin with" and "Wasn't actually hit by anything" must be NO, else it contradicts the reference. I don't know about the others, but some seem rather silly ("pics of wrong ear" NO) or obvious ("healed quickly" and "barely hit" YES).
@Sodra Okay. what sources/pictures do you plan on using to make your determinations? thanks.
What? there's plenty of photos of the wound, plenty of expert testimony (local police, FBI, SS, congresspeople, witnesses, but what does the WH has to do with any of it??), tons of reconstructions, the market you referenced resolved and that author posted all the positive evidence in their extensive writeup. This is absurd, and probably a scam market @mods
Clearly I can't be trusted to resolve this market without making a fuss.
I made this market because I myself didn't understand what was going on with the whole AP image controversy. Even now, I don't see (what I would consider) clear images of the wound, without blood in the way, to determine the initial state of the wound compared to after it healed.
It's not a scam, I just genuinely don't know how I should resolve this market, and I assumed the correct options would get >90% of the votes, like most other markets with definitive answers.
@jacksonpolack if you would like to resolve it however you were before, be my guest.
Market creators are allowed (and, in my opinion, should be encouraged) to wait for more evidence before resolving!
I attempted to resolve it earlier because you appeared to inactive, you're free to keep it open if you want. It's the kind of market where creator judgement matters a lot, and manifold policy isn't to intervene if the creator's behaving reasonably, and 'waiting for more evidence' is generally reasonable.
It may be "generally reasonable" to wait for more evidence, but in this particular case it is indeed most unreasonable to ask for more evidence on the two options I'm talking about: whether he was hit by anything at all, and whether it was a bullet. If reasonable people can't agree on those after watching all the videos, and after seeing the FBI director state "100% no doubt, never was a doubt" about it being a bullet, then I can't imagine what kind of evidence it would require.
For example, the creator asked for "statements from the white house" which any reasonable person should know would be completely irrelevant.
They also want to "wait for some sort of reliable reconstruction of the incident" which has been done to exhaustion, including by reputable media outlets from all sides of the political spectrum.
They also ask for "more expert testimony" which there has been to no end, including the definitive "100%" statement from FBI Deputy Director mentioned. What more do we need?
This can of course remain open for all those speculative options that I agree there is zero evidence for. Plastic surgery or makeup? Hidden by ear folds or hair? Who knows? Who cares? Wrong ear? Come on, that's a troll option. But putting those in the same epistemological level as "was not hit by anything" is just disingenuous.
Part of the idea here is that creators have broad discretion to do things that are reasonable. Not resolving any options until you intend to resolve the whole markets is something a reasonable person might do for whatever reason. It's not what I would do, but it's a personal choice, and the market doesn't specify anywhere that they won't do that.
If the creator resolved those in the 'wrong' way, there'd probably be an appeal to re-resolve it or something, but that hasn't happened!
wound not visible in recent pictures (hidden by hair)
True. I guess that would resolve yes and all the others would NA maybe, we’ll see what @Sodra thinks.