98.2% chance. NYT: "It sounded what could be gun shots interrupted Trump’s rally in Pennsylvania. Trump was hurried off the stage and appeared to be bleeding by his ear." Resolves YES if a bullet or other similar bullet-like projectile hit or grazed him on July 13th https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1812251989759418579 Glass does not count. NOTE #1: I will share my reasoning in advance of my resolution so traders have an opportunity to object. If I am unsure on the closing date or after hearing trader's objections, I would extend the deadline to allow more evidence to arrive. NOTE #2: If I am unsure AND it is highly unlikely new evidence will arrive, I would decide between resolving based on a Keynesian beauty contest (resolves to current % correcting for any market manipulation) OR resolving based on an external forecast (e.g. another prediction market such as Metaculus or Polymarket, a poll of Manifold users, or asking an AI forecaster). Please share in the comments if you think KBC or one of these external forecast options would be better. Planning to update NOTE #2 once I decide which option is better for the health of the market.