Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Xi Jinping and Donald Trump officially meet in person at any point before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM UTC. An "official meeting" is defined as a publicly reported, planned, face-to-face encounter between the two individuals in their capacities as heads of state, or in a recognized diplomatic or political context. This includes meetings at international summits, state visits, or bilateral discussions. The meeting must be confirmed by at least two independent, reputable news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, New York Times, Xinhua, Wall Street Journal). If no such meeting occurs or is credibly reported by the specified deadline, the market will resolve to "No".

Background

Xi Jinping currently holds the titles of President of the People's Republic of China, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, and Chairman of the Central Military Commission. Donald Trump began his second term as the 47th President of the United States on January 20, 2025. Under a second Trump administration, US-China relations are projected to be characterized by intensified strategic competition, particularly in areas of trade and technology, with anticipated increases in tariffs and trade restrictions. Despite these potential tensions, diplomatic engagements between the two nations are expected to continue.

Considerations

Analysts have discussed the possibility of a meeting between President Trump and President Xi at events such as the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders meeting, reportedly scheduled for October 31 – November 1, 2025, in Gyeongju, South Korea. Discussions have also reportedly included potential state visits between the two leaders into 2026.