When we will have an AI capable of building a Dyson Sphere?

Plus

Ṁ5566

2050

70%

Never, or later than 2050.

25%

By 2050

19%

By 2040

10%

By 2035

By 2030

Context:
In the recent Dwarkesh Patel interview, Paul Christiano gave an AI capable of building a Dyson Sphere a chance of 15% by 2030 and 40% by 2040.

Is this plausible?

Question:
When we will have an AI capable of building a Dyson Sphere?

Notes:
- I will not bet in this market.
- Answers will resolve at the date is hit, or we develop AI.
- I make rulings on my markets based on the spirit of the question, not the strict rules as written.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#️ Technology

#AI

#Technical AI Timelines

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bought Ṁ50 By 2030 NO

Why have both "By 2050" and "Never, or later than 2050" if they are both just inverses of each other?

Can you provide a little more context for what you mean by capable? Does the AI have to be capable of only devising plans for the dyson sphere, and building it if it had enough time and resources, or does it also have to be capable of leveraging enough productive capacity to actually produce a dyson sphere by the stated date?

@MaxMorehead Needs to be capable of wielding productive capacity such that it could build it.

Got some much more feasible options for those who are voting <2050:

I saw this title and was like "2300s if it becomes possible? Maybe 2200s?" 🙃 Fascinating that there are folks that think this is much closer on the horizon

@Stralor I've got pretty large limits on after 2050 (500 @ 85, 1000 @ 80) if anyone disagrees and wants a piece

Capable seems hard to define. Arguably humans are capable. Just takes a long time!

@jgyou We are definitely not currently capable of building a Dyson Sphere. And yes Time would probably be a factor.

Recommendations on ways to operationalize this are welcome though. If you think a given date would resolve YES, maybe we could just ask whatever the AI system in question is how to resolve this market. ;)

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