Why will 538 say their model delayed?
57
1.1kṀ12k
resolved Aug 28
Resolved
YES
Model revamp to account for unique circumstances
Resolved
YES
Technical issues / bugs
Resolved
YES
Waiting for "official" nominee announcement at DNC
Resolved
NO
No explanation given
Resolved
NO
Waiting for more polling data
Resolved
NO
Internal drama

This market resolves based on my subjective judgement. I won't bet. Its close date is either immediately after an explanation is given, or a week after a model is released (explanation or not) or 538 announces they'll never release a model (explanation or not). If they literally never say anything at all, resolves to "no explanation given" on Nov 5.

This market will resolve 100% to all excuse(s) given by 538 or their direct representatives regarding why the model is so delayed. G Elliot Morris on Twitter counts, as would a statement by ABC/538, but speculation by unaffiliated people doesn't. Feel free to suggest options I haven't added and I'll add them.

I will not resolve to "no explanation given" unless all other options resolve NO.

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