This market resolves based on my subjective judgement. I won't bet. Its close date is either immediately after an explanation is given, or a week after a model is released (explanation or not) or 538 announces they'll never release a model (explanation or not). If they literally never say anything at all, resolves to "no explanation given" on Nov 5.

This market will resolve 100% to all excuse(s) given by 538 or their direct representatives regarding why the model is so delayed. G Elliot Morris on Twitter counts, as would a statement by ABC/538, but speculation by unaffiliated people doesn't. Feel free to suggest options I haven't added and I'll add them.

I will not resolve to "no explanation given" unless all other options resolve NO.