Resolves on whether Zherka's youtube hit 100k subs by the end of 2023 - https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/jonzherka
Yes = He does hit 100k
No = he doesn't hit 100k
Resolves at end of 2023 using socialblade statistic on the last day of december 2023.
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My bad on the description.
I already resolved my 50k subs market before last day of 2023, so I will resolve this market now too. Same for 200k market if it happens before end of 2023.
https://manifold.markets/SkepticIC/will-zherkas-youtube-hit-50k-subs-b
This can resolve YES now. Markets on manifold almost always resolves YES when it's certain they will resolve YES in the future, even if the description says 'resolves at the end of 2023'
also, the title says 'Will Zherka's YouTube hit 100k subs by the end of 2023?' - by isn't at, so this resolves YES even if it later dips below 100k
@jacksonpolack Actually it's not certain to resolve YES - they could lose subs and drop below 100k - it says
Resolves at end of 2023 using socialblade statistic on the last day of december 2023.
The title is wrong, it should say "at" not "by"
@jack But it also says by IN the description. Not at. So the description contradicts itself.
@ShadowyZephyr I agree. It's contradictory, but generally when there are contradictions one should assume the most specific parts win.
He hit 100k, can this resolve early?