Will the North Atlantic right whale be considered functionally extinct before 2040?
Will the North Atlantic right whale be considered functionally extinct before 2040?
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Was watching a video from MayaHiga, a streamer/conservationist and it mentioned that North Atlantic right whale are predicted to be functionally extinct by 2035 and full on extinction by 2044.
The source of the figures being quoted by the executive director of WDC wasn't made clear. It seems to conflict with Wikipedia who lists them as an example of a species that some scientists already consider functionally extinct.
So, for this market to resolve YES, I'll defer to WDC's stance on whether they are considered functionally extinct. This market will resolve YES if at any point before 2040 a declaration of functional extinction is made which at the time is believed to be true (even if it is later proven wrong).
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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