@traders NO, didnt happen

The way @SimonGrayson has handled this market and continues to is fantastic!

Another reason to bet YES - cited by Nate Silver!

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1714330331795406963

Reasons to bet YES:

• I've created a lot of markets and had a lot of people predicting on my markets (#26 in the leaderboard) without major controversy.

• People trust my markets and my resolutions. I've had markets go to 99.9% or even 100% before I've resolved them suggesting that people don't think there's a serious risk of me intentionally mis-resolving my markets or using some sort of trickery based on intentionally confusing language to resolve markets differently to what they're expecting.

• I always provide thorough descriptions and resolution criteria for my markets and I engage with any questions about hypothetical resolutions and edge cases

• I've had a few markets which have been popular (hundreds of predictors) and which I think have been high quality. This includes markets which I think have been valuable in terms of following the news and understanding whether the scenarios that commentators are talking about are actually going to happen. Here are some examples:

  • /SimonGrayson/will-the-crew-and-passengers-of-the

  • /SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-6aa9483db108

  • /SimonGrayson/who-will-be-the-next-speaker-of-the-0b49bf53ad12

  • /SimonGrayson/will-the-bank-of-england-raise-the

Reasons to vote NO:

• I trade heavily on my own markets. I don't do it on any markets which I think might have a subjective resolution (eg. I avoided betting on markets like /SimonGrayson/will-the-economist-publish-an-artic in case there was a judgement call on whether something counted as an article) but I'm often making markets that I'm interested in where I'm the biggest trader!

• You could argue that a lot of my markets are pretty reactive to the news and that if I hadn't created the market then someone else would have

• I'm most active when it comes to markets like the daily FTSE 100 markets (/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-6885586e2da6 ) or markets on when the random close time of the leagues will be (/SimonGrayson/will-season-4s-random-closing-time ). I think that these markets are fun, that they scratch a bit of a gambling/trading itch and that they are a nice way of practicing trading dynamics which can be applied to more valuable markets. But a lot of people hate these markets and think that we're putting a lot of pointless time into markets which don't provide a meaningful, useful prediction.

• I'm sometimes a bad judge of what is a useful, valuable market. I think that this is the most important market I've created, but no one seems interested in betting on it - /SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-which-month-in-6ab8406103dd

@SimonGrayson If I bet on this market, it will be a NO bet as a kind of insurance "either a nice thing will happen to me or I'll win some Mana" bet!

@SimonGrayson No idea how many new trustworthy-ish users are we going to get this year, so can't really bet on the market, but I think you definitely deserve the badge :)