Will @SimonGrayson be trustworthy-ish/moderator by end of 2023?
22
358
530
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if they get the trustworthy-ish badge by the end of 2023.

Any change in name to trustworthy-ish/moderator badge will still count as YES

Resolves NO if they do not. Also resolves NO if they get banned.

Updated Title To Reflect Change In Name Of TW to MOD (11/7/2023)

Updated Description To Reflect Clarification Of Badge Name (11/11/2023)


I Do Not Participate In My Own Markets


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@traders NO, didnt happen

The way @SimonGrayson has handled this market and continues to is fantastic!

Another reason to bet YES - cited by Nate Silver!

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1714330331795406963

Reasons to bet YES:

  • I've created a lot of markets and had a lot of people predicting on my markets (#26 in the leaderboard) without major controversy.

  • People trust my markets and my resolutions. I've had markets go to 99.9% or even 100% before I've resolved them suggesting that people don't think there's a serious risk of me intentionally mis-resolving my markets or using some sort of trickery based on intentionally confusing language to resolve markets differently to what they're expecting.

  • I always provide thorough descriptions and resolution criteria for my markets and I engage with any questions about hypothetical resolutions and edge cases

  • I've had a few markets which have been popular (hundreds of predictors) and which I think have been high quality. This includes markets which I think have been valuable in terms of following the news and understanding whether the scenarios that commentators are talking about are actually going to happen. Here are some examples:

Reasons to vote NO:

  • I trade heavily on my own markets. I don't do it on any markets which I think might have a subjective resolution (eg. I avoided betting on markets like /SimonGrayson/will-the-economist-publish-an-artic in case there was a judgement call on whether something counted as an article) but I'm often making markets that I'm interested in where I'm the biggest trader!

  • You could argue that a lot of my markets are pretty reactive to the news and that if I hadn't created the market then someone else would have

  • I'm most active when it comes to markets like the daily FTSE 100 markets (/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-6885586e2da6 ) or markets on when the random close time of the leagues will be (/SimonGrayson/will-season-4s-random-closing-time ). I think that these markets are fun, that they scratch a bit of a gambling/trading itch and that they are a nice way of practicing trading dynamics which can be applied to more valuable markets. But a lot of people hate these markets and think that we're putting a lot of pointless time into markets which don't provide a meaningful, useful prediction.

  • I'm sometimes a bad judge of what is a useful, valuable market. I think that this is the most important market I've created, but no one seems interested in betting on it - /SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-which-month-in-6ab8406103dd

@SimonGrayson If I bet on this market, it will be a NO bet as a kind of insurance "either a nice thing will happen to me or I'll win some Mana" bet!

@SimonGrayson No idea how many new trustworthy-ish users are we going to get this year, so can't really bet on the market, but I think you definitely deserve the badge :)