N/A ; Sorry, I need to fix these and only way is to N/A and remake.

@SirCryptomind Why are there two markets for each indice? Isn't [Lower] = 100 - [Higher] Seems a bit unnecessary to me, but what do I know?

@Lion Testing to see how it performs.
Theoretically if Higher is at 80% than Lower should be 20% ; however you also can kind of arb if it is straddling the previous close.

Most likely after the first week of January, If it becomes too confusing in this current form or low participation than Ill make it simpler and just add more US Indices.
Much like my NFL market:

@Lion it could be flat (unchanged)! I suspect it happened more in the old days of low value indexes and fractional quotes. Any recent data for unchanged days?

@deagol You're right, but I suspect that this needs an question as well. I could only find a table for the most interesting days and not the boring ones ;) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_S%26P_500_Index) I'll run a code later over some Yahoo Finance Data to check, now I'm interested.

btw: Happy New Year!

@Lion Happy New Year as well! Yeah, for these I think keeping it simple is best: just one option per index “will it close higher?”, so flat or lower resolves it NO.

@Lion skimmed over last year’s S&P and didn’t find any, closest was May 30 +7¢

@deagol @Lion Its just a test, it can be cut down to 1 option and more indexes added.
And its a chance to kinda arb in the same market.

Since you 2 are ones that trade on these kind of markets, would you rather it be 1 option, like my sports? https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/nfl-week-18-january-6th-7th-which-t

I can get ahead and change them before trading starts tomorrow.

@deagol @SirCryptomind I checked the whole S&P 500 dataset since 1985 until today and discovered 12 days with equal opening and closing points: Mar 28, 1985, Oct 08, 1985, Sep 25, 1986, Dec 08, 1986, Dec 05, 1988, Sep 03, 1992, Apr. 19, 1994, Jan. 12, 1995, Jan. 28, 1997, Jun 20, 2006, Oct 11, 2010 and Apr. 10, 2017. In my opinion this doesn't justify two questions per day. (Except I would reactivate @TigerMcBot 😂 for abitrage, but that probably would defeat the purpose of the whole system) I'd prefer if the questions were closed 50:50 on these days tbh. Even if this isn't 100% these questions are asking for. (The same with stocks.)

@Lion Fair. I will correct them, and just add the VIX back and something else.
But I would love to have a bot trading on stocks/crypto, we have been trying in discord to get one made but nobody wants to do it because stock api data is not free.

@Lion @deagol I am going to redo it to these 5 Indexes. Since Haws gave me s&p 500 and SimonGrayson gave me FTSE. ( will fix the LSE market for FTSE also to be single choice).

I still need to make or find someone to run German markets since Christian deleted their account and was my German stock guy.

GreyBox is in India and is running Nifty50 and similar Indian stock exchanges still thankfully. (ill have them update their market to be single choice too)

@SirCryptomind Let's just say it that way. I think there are ways to make a profitable bot (even with delayed data from YF).

There are many ways to get "realtime" data (as live as it gets) for crypto from diffrent coin exchanges. It's just a lot of work to transfer live prices, trends, market news, etc. into accurate probabilities.

My bot just was a fun weekend project. And most of the weekend I spent by figuring out how the Manifold API works. And it still kind of worked. I used some of the code in the end to give me advices/notifications for my own bets. It just wasn't fully reliable.

I might have a look into the bot stuff at another point.

@SirCryptomind Christian also managed the CAC 40 (a French Indice) and the EUROSTOXX 50 (the European Union Indice) which were quite interesting. I didn't care that much about these German companies tbh, just traded on them when I saw an opportunity. The SMI (the Swiss one) would be a nice to have as well.

I might have a look into the API again if we're allowed to continue and then I could run them. But there won't be any way that I'll do that manual. If you find anyone to manage them, I'll be happy.

@Lion Oh right, ok, I will have some work to do today in making those. Not sure I can get them all done today, but knowing myself, I probably will lol.

@SirCryptomind sorry to say, sir, I may not keep on trading these as much. Nothing wrong with your structure, it’s just me. I’ll be trying to cut down on time spent here. But I’ll be watching, and may put on a bet once in a while. Hope you get epic traders vs. bots battles!