This market needs resolution criteria.

(organizer here): I want to note that the person I've seen in question was not at the conference but at the after-party. Our conference was gated by an application process. After-party was "open to anyone who is invited by either an attendee or an organizer of the conference."

What's all this about?

@EnopoletusHarding oh just some twitter drama. my friends think it is likely

Not worth the mana since it can't resolve negatively until 2029, but I drove the market down to 5% as a public service.

The weird part of this, to me, is the subtext that if someone is connected to the CCP then that makes them nefarious. If I thought someone worked for the CCP, I would make sure to talk to them about the importance of US/China coordination to avoid creating a hostile superintelligence, because this is what I believe, it isn't a secret, and it's in both our interests to have it emphasized.

@JamesBabcock but they dont see rules to US corporate law, and they will build hostile intelligence, please confer with US China foreign policy experts. CCP representatives are not interested in open dialogue with you, just the appearance of it and slow peaking of US technology.

Loose lips sink ships.

@JamesBabcock I would not resolve the YES for a chinese fed (or diplomat etc). Has to be someone who claims not to have connections to chinese communist party, collects secret information (from us gov, contractors, ai labs etc), and sends that information to the chinese communist party.

I also make no moral claim about spies. I've heard the claim that during the cold war, the US was advised not to try to hard to get rid of Russian spies because there was no other way to credibly signal that an attack was not imminent. I selfishly prefer not being lied to.

I do endorse this question as being one which if there was collective knowledge of the true answer, would be better for the world. Separately, I stand by asking this question as a speech action.

@JamesBabcock This "subtext" is nonsense. What actually happened is that multiple people at the afterparty independently noticed highly suspicious behavior from one individual. It is the acting-like-a-spy part that is nefarious, not being from China or working for the CCP.

The case is building, hot chinese women at parties with unsexy nerds, what else do you think is going on? its not like she asked about yalls personalities.

@AmitBhalesha Have you considered the possibility that a woman could be interested in making AGI go well?

this is incredibly stupid psychological analysis