Reputable news sources are currently reporting that Yevgeny Prigozhin was listed as a passenger in a plane that was involved in a fatal crash.
Will it be confirmed by 7:30 PM UK time on Thursday (the closing time of this market) that he is dead?
I will resolve this to YES if two of the following three news sources report that he is dead without caveating it as "reported to be dead", "believed to be dead", "almost certainly dead" or anything like that:
BBC
Guardian
Reuters
There is also a market on whether this will happen by the end of the week:
/SimonGrayson/will-yevgeny-prigozhin-be-confirmed
Edit - just to add that I will not be trading in this market. I think the resolution is pretty clear and objective (it's based on whether the three news sources I've named are stating that he is dead without qualification) but I want to make sure that no one thinks I have an incentive to bend the definition in any way!
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Lemonde.fr, main media in France, has been saying "Prigojin has been killed" on the front page since Putin decleration. From here, it's uncontroversially a yes.
This is a pretty uncontroversial NO resolution.
The media are still using terms like “Putin says” and “presumed dead”. And as a sense-check, the Manifold death markets which were trading at 95% when this market was created are trading at 96% and 97% (and one has even been unresolved and reopened by the admins).
If you want to bet on whether his death will be confirmed by the end of the week, that market is here:
putin sends his regards Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin latest: Putin breaks silence over plane crash - BBC News
The Guardian is reposting "alternative theories":
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/24/is-yevgeny-prigozhin-really-dead-not-everyone-is-convinced
(edit: a̶r̶t̶i̶c̶l̶e̶ ̶s̶e̶e̶m̶s̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶h̶a̶v̶e̶ ̶4̶0̶4̶'̶d̶.̶ Now "Vladimir Putin appears to confirm death of Yevgeny Prigozhin", which still seems to be weasel wording a bit)
@BarrDetwix The link in this comment takes you to a 404, but clicking on the card takes you to the same link (afaict) and the article is there. I can't figure it out
@BarrDetwix Ah, that explains it. My URL bar was autofilling the rest of the link, so I thought there wasn't a difference
Five hours to go and the media sources are still using phrases like “reported death”.
This Guardian analysis even starts with the word “if”!
The odds have dropped to 34%, and it’s looking a lot like time decay at this point. I’m not trading in this market, but it seems to me like even 34% is a bit high with only a few hours to go!
In the last hour:
- BBC: "reported death"
- Guardian: "presumed death"
- Reuters: "believed to have killed"
As of 7:30 AM (half way through the 24 hours):
The Guardian's home page has two references to "Prigozhin’s reported death"
The BBC's main headline appends "Russia says" to the news and this new article says in the headline that he "may be dead"
So this definitely isn't ready to resolve YES just yet!
