Will 30 or more people put in a prediction on this market?
Bots don't count towards the total. If I predict, I do count. If someone trades on the market but sells their entire position, they still count.
I may close this market early if the answer is YES but I won't extend the close date if the answer is NO.
This is the latest version of this market - each time the target increases by one so it should be a bit less of a certain thing.
@MpP has set up a meta-market about these market iterations here:
Here's how the previous markets went:
Six or more? Target hit in 7 minutes
Seven or more? Target hit in 1 hour 37 minutes
Eight or more? Target hit in 2 hours 12 minutes
Nine or more? Target hit in 12 hours and 8 minutes
Ten or more? Target hit in 29 minutes
11 or more? Target hit in 1 hour 32 minutes
12 or more? Target hit in 4 hours 14 minutes
13 or more? Target hit in 15 hours 35 minutes
14 or more? Target hit in 12 hours 33 minutes
15 or more? Target hit in 28 hours 47 minutes. This time five non-bot users had positions on NO at the end - the first time that so many people thought that the target might not be hit!
16 or more? Target hit in 6 hours 41 minutes - significantly faster than the previous three iterations!
17 or more? Target hit in 13 hours 59 minutes
18 or more? Target hit in 23 hours 28 minutes
19 or more? Target hit in 14 hours 59 minutes
20 or more? Target hit in 21 hours 51 minutes
21 or more? Target hit in 19 hours 14 minutes - now with six people holding NO positions at close!
22 or more? Target hit in 13 hours 23 minutes
23 or more? Target hit in 5 hours 4 minutes - the quickest since 12!
24 or more? Target hit in 17 hours 30 minutes
25 or more? Target hit in 22 hours 18 minutes - the slowest since 18
26 or more? Target hit in 38 hours 36 minutes - the first time I didn't think it was going to happen and I bet on NO!
27 or more? Target hit in 44 hours 11 minutes after a very long period of stagnation in the middle followed by a flurry of activity in the final couple of hours!
28 or more? Target hit in 43 hours 49 minutes
29 or more? Target hit in 50 hours 6 minutes
Time for the big 30!
1,000
3.0029 predictors when 30 were needed…
This looks like it’s resolved as NO, much to the chagrin of my final second bet when I thought that someone must be diving in for a last second profit grab!
I don’t think I’ve misunderstood anything, but I’ll give this five minutes in case I’m misunderstanding anything and then I’ll resolve to NO!
We're currently on 23 (the market shows as having 25 predictors, but @Botlab and @Mason are marked as bots) so we'll need to see another seven predictors in nine hours for this to resolve to YES.
That sounds like it should be easy, but there's only been one new trader in the past 13 hours! So have people been keeping their powder dry or are we reaching the end of the road?
While we're waiting to see how it shakes out, I'll take this opportunity to promote some of my markets to predict current events on both sides of the Atlantic.
These markets are about the US debt ceiling - something that's going to start turning into a pretty big news story over the next few weeks:
/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-4dfbab873f7b
/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-6aa9483db108
/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-5ce35cf731f8
/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-ca2e2f5724f5
/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-3d5bcf7c60a2
/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-9a9422678ab4
/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-fcb9293c90bc
And these markets are about when Rishi Sunak will lose his job as Prime Minister:
/SimonGrayson/will-rishi-sunak-be-replaced-as-pri-da7daf68db3e
/SimonGrayson/will-rishi-sunak-be-replaced-as-pri-f1193d82653e
/SimonGrayson/will-rishi-sunak-be-replaced-as-pri-8e72be58cdcd
/SimonGrayson/will-rishi-sunak-be-replaced-as-pri-9f3c9f888743
Shamelessly plugging a more ambitious market https://manifold.markets/seaton/will-this-market-have-100-or-more-u.
Currently 46% with 41 of 100 traders (bots allowed), 12 days left.
@JustNo wait you think this market will resolve no but the 100 unique trader market will resolve yes?
@SavioMak Mostly just fucking around.
"No" shares are cheap here, and it resolves a little faster than the previous markets. If this one stalls like previous markets my play might pay off.
In contrast, the other market is interesting as an experiment to see if I can drive traffic.
