Will this market have 30 or more unique predictors?
resolved May 1

Will 30 or more people put in a prediction on this market?

Bots don't count towards the total. If I predict, I do count. If someone trades on the market but sells their entire position, they still count.

I may close this market early if the answer is YES but I won't extend the close date if the answer is NO.

This is the latest version of this market - each time the target increases by one so it should be a bit less of a certain thing.

@MpP has set up a meta-market about these market iterations here:

Here's how the previous markets went:

Six or more? Target hit in 7 minutes

Seven or more? Target hit in 1 hour 37 minutes

Eight or more? Target hit in 2 hours 12 minutes

Nine or more? Target hit in 12 hours and 8 minutes

Ten or more? Target hit in 29 minutes

11 or more? Target hit in 1 hour 32 minutes

12 or more? Target hit in 4 hours 14 minutes

13 or more? Target hit in 15 hours 35 minutes

14 or more? Target hit in 12 hours 33 minutes

15 or more? Target hit in 28 hours 47 minutes. This time five non-bot users had positions on NO at the end - the first time that so many people thought that the target might not be hit!

16 or more? Target hit in 6 hours 41 minutes - significantly faster than the previous three iterations!

17 or more? Target hit in 13 hours 59 minutes

18 or more? Target hit in 23 hours 28 minutes

19 or more? Target hit in 14 hours 59 minutes

20 or more? Target hit in 21 hours 51 minutes

21 or more? Target hit in 19 hours 14 minutes - now with six people holding NO positions at close!

22 or more? Target hit in 13 hours 23 minutes

23 or more? Target hit in 5 hours 4 minutes - the quickest since 12!

24 or more? Target hit in 17 hours 30 minutes

25 or more? Target hit in 22 hours 18 minutes - the slowest since 18

26 or more? Target hit in 38 hours 36 minutes - the first time I didn't think it was going to happen and I bet on NO!

27 or more? Target hit in 44 hours 11 minutes after a very long period of stagnation in the middle followed by a flurry of activity in the final couple of hours!

28 or more? Target hit in 43 hours 49 minutes

29 or more? Target hit in 50 hours 6 minutes

Time for the big 30!

Get Ṁ600 play money

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predicted YES

What’s funny is this is the first one that I even became aware of. Such a shame that I was recommended the one that no one else got.

predicted NO

Alas, the market has resolved to no. Sad to see the end of the road, I was really hoping for 50 :D closing my market now.


bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

29 predictors when 30 were needed…

This looks like it’s resolved as NO, much to the chagrin of my final second bet when I thought that someone must be diving in for a last second profit grab!

I don’t think I’ve misunderstood anything, but I’ll give this five minutes in case I’m misunderstanding anything and then I’ll resolve to NO!

bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

By my count, there's still 29 predictors, not 30, ehh, that was very close.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Five minutes to go…

By my reckoning we’ve had 29 predictors (not including our two bots) so it’s all to play for in the final seconds…

predicted NO

An hour and a half to go and we still need another five predictors…

We’ve only had two new predictors in the past few hours, and one of those was me losing faith and betting on NO!

We're currently on 23 (the market shows as having 25 predictors, but @Botlab and @Mason are marked as bots) so we'll need to see another seven predictors in nine hours for this to resolve to YES.

That sounds like it should be easy, but there's only been one new trader in the past 13 hours! So have people been keeping their powder dry or are we reaching the end of the road?

While we're waiting to see how it shakes out, I'll take this opportunity to promote some of my markets to predict current events on both sides of the Atlantic.

These markets are about the US debt ceiling - something that's going to start turning into a pretty big news story over the next few weeks:








And these markets are about when Rishi Sunak will lose his job as Prime Minister:





predicted NO

Shamelessly plugging a more ambitious market https://manifold.markets/seaton/will-this-market-have-100-or-more-u.
Currently 46% with 41 of 100 traders (bots allowed), 12 days left.

predicted YES

@JustNo wait you think this market will resolve no but the 100 unique trader market will resolve yes?

predicted NO

@SavioMak Mostly just fucking around.

"No" shares are cheap here, and it resolves a little faster than the previous markets. If this one stalls like previous markets my play might pay off.

In contrast, the other market is interesting as an experiment to see if I can drive traffic.

Just so many giant fuzzy dice 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition