Will 28 or more people put in a prediction on this market?
Bots don't count towards the total. If I predict, I do count. If someone trades on the market but sells their entire position, they still count.
I may close this market early if the answer is YES but I won't extend the close date if the answer is NO.
This is the latest version of this market - each time the target increases by one so it should be a bit less of a certain thing.
@MpP has set up a meta-market about these market iterations here:
Here's how the previous markets went:
Six or more? Target hit in 7 minutes
Seven or more? Target hit in 1 hour 37 minutes
Eight or more? Target hit in 2 hours 12 minutes
Nine or more? Target hit in 12 hours and 8 minutes
Ten or more? Target hit in 29 minutes
11 or more? Target hit in 1 hour 32 minutes
12 or more? Target hit in 4 hours 14 minutes
13 or more? Target hit in 15 hours 35 minutes
14 or more? Target hit in 12 hours 33 minutes
15 or more? Target hit in 28 hours 47 minutes. This time five non-bot users had positions on NO at the end - the first time that so many people thought that the target might not be hit!
16 or more? Target hit in 6 hours 41 minutes - significantly faster than the previous three iterations!
17 or more? Target hit in 13 hours 59 minutes
18 or more? Target hit in 23 hours 28 minutes
19 or more? Target hit in 14 hours 59 minutes
20 or more? Target hit in 21 hours 51 minutes
21 or more? Target hit in 19 hours 14 minutes - now with six people holding NO positions at close!
22 or more? Target hit in 13 hours 23 minutes
23 or more? Target hit in 5 hours 4 minutes - the quickest since 12!
24 or more? Target hit in 17 hours 30 minutes
25 or more? Target hit in 22 hours 18 minutes - the slowest since 18
26 or more? Target hit in 38 hours 36 minutes - the first time I didn't think it was going to happen and I bet on NO!
27 or more? Target hit in 44 hours 11 minutes after a very long period of stagnation in the middle followed by a flurry of activity in the final couple of hours!
Will 28 reverse the trend and go quicker, or will this be the end of the road?
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ96 | |
| 2 | Ṁ74 | |
| 3 | Ṁ53 | |
| 4 | Ṁ45 | |
| 5 | Ṁ45 |
This time around we got off to a quick start, followed by a long period where almost no one joined in. There was much less market confidence this time, with the odds hanging around under 90% for the whole time and even hanging around between 50% and 70% for many hours!
Only one bot joined us this time. I wonder what we did to scare the others off?
29 is up next:
Since there's a debate raging on Manifold Markets about the value of these self-referential and fun markets versus the serious predictive stuff, why not also put a bet in on my markets on when Rishi Sunak will lose his job: