Will this market have 24 or more unique predictors?
28
23
530
resolved Apr 20
Resolved
YES

Will 24 or more people put in a prediction on this market?

Bots don't count towards the total. If I predict, I do count.

I may close this market early if the answer is YES but I won't extend the close date if the answer is NO.

This is the latest version of this market - each time the target increases by one so it should be a bit less of a certain thing. Here's how the previous markets went:

Six or more? Target hit in 7 minutes

Seven or more? Target hit in 1 hour 37 minutes

Eight or more? Target hit in 2 hours 12 minutes

Nine or more? Target hit in 12 hours and 8 minutes

Ten or more? Target hit in 29 minutes

11 or more? Target hit in 1 hour 32 minutes

12 or more? Target hit in 4 hours 14 minutes

13 or more? Target hit in 15 hours 35 minutes

14 or more? Target hit in 12 hours 33 minutes

15 or more? Target hit in 28 hours 47 minutes. This time five non-bot users had positions on NO at the end - the first time that so many people thought that the target might not be hit!

16 or more? Target hit in 6 hours 41 minutes - significantly faster than the previous three iterations!

17 or more? Target hit in 13 hours 59 minutes

18 or more? Target hit in 23 hours 28 minutes

19 or more? Target hit in 14 hours 59 minutes

20 or more? Target hit in 21 hours 51 minutes

21 or more? Target hit in 19 hours 14 minutes - now with six people holding NO positions at close!

22 or more? Target hit in 13 hours 23 minutes

23 or more? Target hit in 5 hours 4 minutes - the quickest since 12!

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24 predictors in 17 and a half hours.

Next up, 25:

Question, for how long do you plan to do these? Until one of them fails, yes?

bought Ṁ1 of YES

@MpP getting boring, yes

@MpP That’s what I was thinking, yes!

To be honest, when it took over 28 hours for “15 or more” to hit, I thought the whole thing was running out of steam so I’m surprised it’s still going!

@Char Only one of these is running at a time, so hopefully not too annoying to anyone who finds them boring!

predicted NO

@SimonGrayson well, I created a meta market regarding this question :)

@MpP That’s brilliant!