Will this market have 19 or more unique predictors?
Will this market have 19 or more unique predictors?
26
530Ṁ2909
resolved Apr 17
Resolved
YES

Will 19 or more people put in a prediction on this market?

Bots don't count towards the total. If I predict, I do count.

I may close this market early if the answer is YES but I won't extend the close date if the answer is NO.

This is the latest version of this market - each time the target increases by one so it should be a bit less of a certain thing. Here's how the previous markets went:

Six or more? Target hit in 7 minutes

Seven or more? Target hit in 1 hour 37 minutes

Eight or more? Target hit in 2 hours 12 minutes

Nine or more? Target hit in 12 hours and 8 minutes

Ten or more? Target hit in 29 minutes

11 or more? Target hit in 1 hour 32 minutes

12 or more? Target hit in 4 hours 14 minutes

13 or more? Target hit in 15 hours 35 minutes

14 or more? Target hit in 12 hours 33 minutes

15 or more? Target hit in 28 hours 47 minutes. This time five non-bot users had positions on NO at the end - the first time that so many people thought that the target might not be hit!

16 or more? Target hit in 6 hours 41 minutes - significantly faster than the previous three iterations!

17 or more? Target hit in 13 hours 59 minutes

18 or more? Target hit in 23 hours 28 minutes

Will 19 be a step too far?

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