Will the UK's CPI inflation figure published on 18th October be below 7%?
Will the UK's CPI inflation figure published on 18th October be below 7%?
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390Ṁ53k
resolved Oct 18
Resolved
YES

The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest inflation figures at 7:00 UK time on Wednesday 18th October.

This includes the annual CPI number for the past 12 months.

Here are the last few readings (based on the month when the figures were released):

January 2023 - 10.5%

February 2023 - 10.1%

March 2023 - 10.4%

April 2023 - 10.1%

May 2023 - 8.7%

June 2023 - 8.7%

July 2023 - 7.9%

August 2023 - 6.8%

September 2023 - 6.7%

October 2023 - TBC

(The market will resolve to NO if the figure is exactly 7.0%)

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1y

A reading of 6.7% as confirmed by the Guardian and the BBC:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/oct/18/uk-inflation-fuel-prices-september-2023

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-67137477

Resolves to YES

Next month's markets as well as markets on the UK's monthly GDP and interest rate decisions are here:

https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=uk-economic-data&t=

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1y

The UK's CPI inflation rate on 18th October is likely to be below 7% based on recent trends and forecasts. Data from August 2023 showed a decline in inflation to 5.9% and 6.7% in different metrics, with expectations of a further dip to 6.6% in October. Annual forecasts for 2023 also predict a rate of 6.1%. These predictions and the recent downward trend in inflation suggest a continuation of this pattern into October, although unforeseen events such as the Israel-Hamas conflict could potentially alter these projections for the year but given the timeframe its highly unlikely that it will affect the October rates.

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