Will the “another AI letter by 31st May” market have 2,000 or more trades?
resolved May 26

The market "Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?" seems like a pretty normal Manifold market. The question seems well defined and Manifold's admins have confirmed that we should expect an accurate resolution.

You would expect to see a bit of an interest in the market (AI subjects are always popular around here) with up to 100 or 200 trades if the market really catches everyone's interest. You'd expect the probability to decay organically as we run out of days for the letter to arrive.

Instead, we've seen huge bets and absolutely wild swings in the odds with what seems like very little explanation!

At the time of writing there have been over 1,400 trades on this market. Will this figure hit 2,000 by the time the market closes?

Resolution rules:

  • Numbers are based on the figure displayed in the market's trades tab (currently "1.4k trades"). Do 1,951 trades get rounded up to 2,000? I don't know, but that's not relevant to this market. If it shows as "2.0k trades", that means we've hit 2,000 for the purposes of this market.

  • Predicting YES if you intent to trade heavily is fine, but if there's evidence of someone predicting YES here and then making loads of meaningless trades to manipulate this market, I'll try to exclude those trades. That sounds difficult to work out and do though, and intentionally over-trading might cause performance issues. So please just don't do that.

  • If the market is prematurely closed or deleted before we hit the number or if trade is limited for any other reason such as technical issues and the number is not reached, this market resolves to NO. That's part of what you're betting on here!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
Sort by:
MayMeta avatar
MayMetapredicted YES

My heart almost stopped when I saw something related to the AI letter resolving as YES

Related markets

Will this market have 200 or more unique predictors?18%
Will any market get >10k unique traders?14%
Will my experimental group of scandal markets get at least 300 traders by the end of July?23%
Will this market get 69 unique traders?20%
Will this market get more unique traders than my previous market?56%
Will I have 90+ double digit participant open markets created by end of June? (59 now)88%
Will trades/traders be greater than 1.5?94%
How many people will participate in my biggest market this year?125
I'm creating a market: will I get at least 20 participants?94%
Will the trading bonus be increased for the first few unique traders?43%
If I livestream a game of chess with my partner and run a market on the outcome, will that market get at least 15 traders?66%
Will sin(sin((trades-traders)) be positive?46%
Resolves to number of unique traders32%