This will resolve to YES if Rishi Sunak is replaced as Prime Minister for any reason before 1st January 2025.
The main reasons why a Prime Minister would be replaced:
If General Election is held and Sunak no longer has the support of the majoirty of the House after the election, he would be expected to resign and the King will invite someone else to form a Government
If Sunak is replaced as the leader of the Conservative Party, there is a party split or he loses the confidence of the majority of the house for any other reason, he would be expected to resign and the King will invite someone else to form a Government
If Sunak is incapacitated, the King may invite someone else to form a Government
Note that if any of these scenarios occurs, he continues to be Prime Minister until the King accepts his resignation. When Gordon Brown lost the General Election onn 6th May 2010, he still served as Prime Minister for another few days until his resignation and David Cameron's appointment on 11th May.
If Sunak is incapacitated and someone else (such as the Deputy Prime Minister) takes over his duties without being formally appointed as Prime Minister, that will not be enough to satisfy the requirements for this market.
More information about the constitutional process is here:
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/how-is-a-prime-minister-appointed/
Any reason this is trading so high? It doesn't seem like Tories will get rid of Sunak before the election (reinforces the idea they're incompetent) and the final possible date for the election is January 28 2025 (they probably won't hold an early election). Like it could happen but more likely than not he'll hang on.
@Kraalnaxx They almost certainly won’t go for a January election, check out some related markets to see the odds. Basically because it involves campaigning over Christmas and dragging the elderly out to vote in the cold. As a nation we just don’t do it unless it’s totally unavoidable. Right now the absolute latest likely date is November, but it’s far more likely to be May or October.
If you think January 2025 is in any way likely you can get it at an incredible price here https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-which-month-in-6ab8406103dd?r=Tm9pdA
