Angela Rayner is the deputy leader of the Labour Party.
Over the last few weeks, a story has emerged about the possibility of her having underpaid capital gains tax on the sale of her previous home, possibly by as much as £1,500.
The Conservative Party and elements of the right wing press say that this is a serious story and that Rayner has broken the law. They have even put pressure on the police to investigate. Others have said that this is a smear campaign and compared it to the time that the Tories made a big deal about Starmer drinking a beer to distract from their own lockdown breaches.
Rayner has said that she will stand down if she has committed a criminal offence.
Will she be charged with a crime?
If she is charged, or she accepts criminal liability or a criminal fine (not a civil fine or an agreement to pay money to HMRC), this market resolves to YES.
If Parliament is dissolved for a general election before that happens, this market resolves to NO.
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