When will the first House vote for Speaker take place?
Basic
42
Ṁ19k
resolved Oct 17
100%98.9%
Tuesday 17th October
0.0%
Thursday 12th October
0.1%
Friday 13th October
0.0%
Saturday 14th October
0.0%
Sunday 15th October
0.0%
Monday 16th October
0.1%
Wednesday 18th October
0.1%
Thursday 19th October
0.1%
Friday 20th October
0.0%
Saturday 21st October
0.0%
Sunday 22nd October
0.1%
Monday 23rd October
0.1%
Tuesday 24th October
0.1%
Wednesday 25th October
0.1%
Thursday 26th October
0.1%
Friday 27th October
0.2%Other

The US House of Representatives has been without a Speaker since Kevin McCarthy was ousted a week ago.

There is a market on who the next Speaker will be, and Manifolders are currently predicting a high chance that it will be Steve Scalise

/SimonGrayson/who-will-be-the-next-speaker-of-the-0b49bf53ad12

When will the first House vote for Speaker take place?

If it looks like it's going to drag on for more than another week and "Other" is popular, I will start adding more dates!

Resolution notes

  • This market is about the first full vote where members of the House vote for named candidates. It does not include procedural matters like a vote on whether to have a vote.

  • The resolution will be based on Washington DC time - if a vote begins before midnight, the market will resolve to that day even if the voting itself carries on past midnight.

  • If there is some sort of process where a Speaker can be appointed without House members voting for named candidates, this market will resolve to N/A

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The rumours were true - the vote took place today, so this market resolves to 17th October!

"Other" was trading at 35% to 45% so I've added another week's worth of dates!

I already made a version of this with the new market type

@jack Ah, I didn’t spot yours!

It would be interesting to hear which format people think works better for this particular market?

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