
When Joe Biden announced that he was withdrawing from the Presidential race, 538 suspended their prediction model, replacing it with a red sign saying "Forecast suspended":
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
There is a lot of interest on Manifold as to what the updated version of the model will show once it comes out:
/ManifoldPolitics/when-538s-next-model-comes-out-what
When will it come back online, showing us a percentage chance for each of Harris and Trump?
Market notes:
This resolves to the first day on which 538 is showing a model at this page or a similar page. A sneak-preview on Twitter or any other site will not count.
The market resolves based on Washington DC time (any time after midnight counts as the next day)
If it looks like it might be longer than a week, I will add more days and anyone better on "other" will receive an equal number of shares in those options. If you don't think that they will ever publish a Harris vs Trump model, you can still bet on Other.
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ1,307 | |
2 | Ṁ1,155 | |
3 | Ṁ466 | |
4 | Ṁ375 | |
5 | Ṁ145 |