The Canadian Grand Prix is due to go ahead on Sunday 18th June.
But as this cursed season continues, speculation is starting that the Grand Prix may be at risk due to the forest fires raging across Quebec:
https://talksport.com/sport/motorsport/1451652/canadian-grand-prix-f1-forest-fires/
Will Saturday's qualifying session be cancelled?
Resolution notes:
If qualifying hasn't taken place by the end of Saturday, this market will resolve to YES even if it rerranged for Sunday morning or any other day
If the track is green at any point on Saturday (ie. cars are allowed to go out and qualify) and a qualifying result is declared, this market will resolve to NO
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ47 | |
| 2 | Ṁ16 | |
| 3 | Ṁ7 | |
| 4 | Ṁ6 | |
| 5 | Ṁ5 |
Short summary: Less than 4mm rain for qualifying. AQI should be very good.
Given that the forecast base time is 24-48 hours from the qualifying and assuming 90% forecast accuracy (just a guess on this) and that the market is at 8% already, I will not hedge nor increase my NO bet.
Precipitation totals (6h totals!) from ECMWF: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/esuite_0078_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202306160000&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202306171800
PM2.5 gathered (visually) from HRRR near surface smoke: from https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRRsmoke/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_ncep_jet&domain=GreatLakes&run_time=16+Jun+2023+-+06Z
AQI is coherent with overall day forecasts from: https://www.iqair.com/us/canada/quebec/montreal
Saturday 17th June 2023
Qualifying: 16:00 - 17:00 local time
(20-21 utc)
< 4 mm at 15-21 utc
pm2.5 19-21 utc < 1 ug/m3 (<4 AQI US PM 2.5)
