The Champions League group stages start on the week of 19th/20th September and run until the week of 12th/13th December.
There are four teams in each group. They each play each other twice, and at the end of the six matchdays, the top two teams qualify for the knockout stages.
Which two teams will qualify? The market will resolve as 50% to each of the two teams.
Related questions
đ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | áš161 | |
| 2 | áš133 | |
| 3 | áš100 | |
| 4 | áš58 | |
| 5 | áš57 |
Resolves to Arsenal and PSV.
These markets resolve to 50% for each of the two qualifying teams. In future, it will probably make sense for markets like this to be unlinked markets where each team can resolve to 100% - but those kind of unlinked markets didn't exist when I created this year's group stage markets back in September!
@SimonGrayson Could they not have been done in a yes/no format? Or are the BUY - YES and BUY - NO formats a relatively new feature? But I definitely think that for future tournaments (EURO '24 and UCL '24/'25) that's the way to go.
@JonReid Yep - if you're describing what I think you are then that's a relatively new feature which didn't exist when I set these markets up before the group stages began.
The newer Manifold feature is that you can have unlinked options that each resolve to 100%, so you would be betting YES/NO on Arsenal and it would resolve as 100% if Arsenal qualify.
The end result should be similar (you get the same amount of profit/risk if you bet on Arsenal at 80% in an unlinked market as if you bet on them at 40% in this market and they resolve to 50%) but the benefits are that you don't have as much capital tied up and it's more intuitive.
The downside is that because the markets aren't linked you're not getting as much value from the liquidity in the other options. You move the price quicker because Manifold isn't automatically arbitraging the other markets and effectively putting NO bets on them in the background to get you better value on a YES bet on Arsenal!
@SimonGrayson Right, think the unlinked are also just more clear. I thought things seemed off in my early days in the market and they were, indeed, as I was just trying to bet Arsenal as close to the 100% mark as possible. Spent the last few weeks just betting repetitively on Arsenal and PSV over and over to try and soak up any % point I could that Lens still had.
Still not sure if things have resolved properly though. My payout should've been well over 2K (payouts showed over4k on Arsenal and over 1K on PSV, obviously split in half, that would make about 2.5 to 2.6K). Instead only about 980 was added to my account. Is this going to be resolved gradually or were the trades manually resolved and done improperly?
@JonReid Agreed about the format of the market - it was making the best of what worked with the options available at the time!
I'm not sure about the payouts being lower than expected. Like you say, you should have been getting 50% of the payout figure that was quoted for each of Arsenal and PSV. Were some of the bets made some time back? If they were, Manifold has a system where it gives you back some of what you bet on long term markets as a loan and then subtracts that from your winnings to "pay it back":
https://docs.manifold.markets/faq#what-are-loans
If that's not it, it might be worth reporting to Manifold admins (or using the bugs channel on the Manifold Discord) if the amount you got back is wrong!
@SimonGrayson A bunch of them were, yeah. I was pushing Arsenal to 70% levels before realizing it was a 50% market lol. Then I was trying to pick off all the available profits for PSV and Arsenal when they were below 50% the last few weeks. I suppose I was using those loans each day to do so, which would explain the much lower payouts. I think they need to adjust their "payouts" numbers on markets to include what has come back in loans and where 50% markets are present. It's kinda misleading.
With Arsenal needing a point from 6, the odds of qualification are stacked in their favour. It is worth noting that they have the best record in the group and are the current group leaders, and face Lens next at home with a formidable home record so far across all competitions. Their only loss in the UCL this season (3 wins in 4) did indeed come away from home at a Lens side that had gone the distance with PSG for the French championship last season, despite having significantly lower market value and squad quality. The loss was a narrow one (2-1), however, despite Arsenal losing two talismanic forwards - Saka and Martinelli - before and during the match.
Their form speaks for itself. Having won 6 of their last 10 (D1, L3), they have more than enough reason to be confident of qualification. Each of the 3 losses has come at away matches, one of which is the aforementioned against Lens. In this time they have defeated reigning champions Man City, and have managed to win 3 home matches without conceding, underscoring the obstacle that faces Lens in their next match.
As they seek to wrap up the group, I expect them to field their strongest possible XI for the match. That, and the home advantage, gives them enough firepower to not only secure qualification but go on to win the group.
Betting odds have Arsenal at 1/20. Implied probability of ~95%. Seems like a no-brainer at 51%. If I had more Mana, I would definitely increase my position.
@DarrenSpencer you have to double the chance because it resolves to 50% not 100%. So at 51% it's 102% chance of Arsenal advancing
@ItsMe Oh no... I've just gone and spent most of my Mana on this and a similar Bayern Munich bet. Thanks for the education!
@ItsMe Really? They should probably change the "Payout on YES" number then. It's showing me my mana will double once the question settles. Seems misleading if I'm only going to be paid out on half.
Arsenal will qualify from Group B:
The market value of Arsenal is around 1.10 billion (Transfer Mkt)
Compared to other teams in the same group they have a much less market value. Arsenal is, therefore, a favorite to be qualified.
"Arsenal have two home games to play, so they will be clear favourites to rubber-stamp their place in the round of 16." (ESPN).
According to UEFA.com, who reviewed previous Champions League seasons to create a probability rating, Arsenal have an 83% chance of going through, while Sevilla and PSV each have just a 16% chance. (Sporting News).