The Somerton and Frome by-election is one of three by-elections happening on 20th July. All three are seats which the Conservatives previously held but which they look like they are going to struggle to hold.

Manifold users think that the Conservative candidate have a very poor chance of holding this seat and that the Lib Dems are clear favourites:

/NiallWeaver/will-a-conservative-party-candidate-ed0510127c07

/Noit/which-party-will-win-the-somerton-a

But will the Conservatives lose by a margin of more than 10%?

/SimonGrayson/20th-july-byelections-will-the-cons

/SimonGrayson/20th-july-byelections-will-the-cons-dbc686b210d2

/SimonGrayson/20th-july-byelections-will-the-cons-54ca715dfd89

Resolution critera:

• If the margin of defeat (the gap between the Conservatives and the winning party) is more than 10% of all votes cast and counted, this resolves to YES. This is not 10% of the winner's votes or 10% of the Conservative candidate's votes, it's 10% of the total.

• For example, if the result is declared as Lib Dem 45%, Conservative 34%, Labour 9%, that is a losing margin of 11% and this resolves to YES

• If there is a party in between the Conservatives and the winning party, that makes no difference to this market

• The market will be resolved based on unrounded figures even if the media are reporting rounded figures!

• If the Conservatives win the seat or lose by a margin of less than 10%, this market resolves to NO