This market will resolve to the first year when the average-looking 40-60 year old person can use technology (medical, cosmetic, etc.) to look (almost) indistinguishable from an attractive 20-year-old person.
The technology does not have to be affordable, it only has to exist. If, for example, Bryan Johnson successfully uses his millions to look very young (when judged by a neutral observer, and in person), and documents it thoroughly, this market will most likely resolve YES.
The market will NOT resolve based on digital alterations, temporary cosmetic effects, or single anecdotal cases without verification.
Update 2025-05-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified how a single well-documented case will be evaluated for market resolution:
A single such case serves as proof of concept.
For resolution, the case requires:
Expert verification.
Clear evidence that the results are not anomalous.
If significant doubt remains about a single case (even if verified and non-anomalous), resolution will await additional verified cases.
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I will do near anything to make these probabilities higher. Honestly maybe it’s just cope but it’s hard for me to imagine a world with an aligned super intelligence where this doesn’t shortly become possible after its existence with in a decade or two. The question for me is more about if I think there will be a super intelligence (yes) and do I think it will be aligned (no ;_; )
One single well-documented case would serve as proof of concept that the technology works in principle, which is what this market is about. For market resolution, this case would of course need expert verification and clear evidence the results aren't anomalous. If there's significant doubt, we will wait for additional verified cases before resolving.