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MANIFOLD
AI wake-up call when?
21
Ṁ1kṀ3.1k
2029
May 11, 2028
6%
Before July 1st, 2026
38%
Before January 1st, 2027
36%
Before July 1st, 2027
42%
Before January 1st, 2028
58%
Before July 1st, 2028
72%
Before January 1st, 2029
78%
Before July 1st, 2029
73%
Before January 1st, 2029
80%
Before July 1st, 2029
87%
Before January 1st, 2030

The event meets BOTH of the following requirements:

  1. The event appears on the front page (digital or print) of at least 3 major international news publications: NYT, BBC (top 7 story homepage), NRC Handelsblad, Le Monde, Bild) within 1 week

  1. The event causes Google Trends for "AI safety" or "AI risk" to increase by at least 5x within a week, and remain above that elevated level for at least 4 weeks

Market context
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Technology
AI Impacts
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Is it me or Before January 1st, 2029 is there twice? That's nice, double the liquidity, we LOVE THAT <3

@JasonMendoza2008 oops, apparently so.. also July 1st..

Almost a 5x trend in 1 week but not quite. From IABIED I suppose

Related

bought Ṁ10 YES

Desc formatting is slightly fucked

@jim you meant the description? Should be fixed now

bought Ṁ10 NO

I can't see this happening in the next couple years. Hard for me to imagine more than four years out though so I'll leave my NO bets there.