Markets of Sam's firing seem to be predicting some kind of major controversy that led to his firing.

I will not be betting on this market. This market will N/A on close if no information is available but I will try to resolve based on partial information. A general rule of thumb for what counts as non-dramatic is something which can cause the media or Manifold to lose interest in this story beyond the short term, rather than gain interest. Fundamental ideological differences with the board and any kind of misconduct are definitely dramatic, if they are the main reasons.

I'm making this market in part to test my own prediction (that I will not bet on because of the subjectivity involved). I'm like 65% sure that Sam was fired for non-dramatic reasons. Something like a history of miscommunication, personal differences, boring boardroom politics, that kind of stuff. I don't know what exactly but it's probably a confluence of smaller things.