Markets of Sam's firing seem to be predicting some kind of major controversy that led to his firing.
I will not be betting on this market. This market will N/A on close if no information is available but I will try to resolve based on partial information. A general rule of thumb for what counts as non-dramatic is something which can cause the media or Manifold to lose interest in this story beyond the short term, rather than gain interest. Fundamental ideological differences with the board and any kind of misconduct are definitely dramatic, if they are the main reasons.
I'm making this market in part to test my own prediction (that I will not bet on because of the subjectivity involved). I'm like 65% sure that Sam was fired for non-dramatic reasons. Something like a history of miscommunication, personal differences, boring boardroom politics, that kind of stuff. I don't know what exactly but it's probably a confluence of smaller things.
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@Joshua I agree. All the articles that just speculated about dramatic reasons got a lot of tractions, but now we have an actual verified explanation and nobody seems to care. I'm waiting until the close date to resolve but if no new information comes out, I think I will resolve YES
Clarification: No early resolution will be done if clear evidence is not available, but I will be judging based on partial information on EOY. Right now I'm having a hard time figuring out if what we know is dramatic or not. Certainly there was a lot of boardroom drama, but on the other hand it's kind of undramatic for outsiders, just kind of messy internal politics.
I'm going to be logging my thoughts in the comments in an attempt to track my forecasting performance, since I can't trade here. I'm adjusting down, since a new Bloomberg article had a source that said that in October, Sam made a move to reduce Ilya Sutskever's power, rubbing Ilya and the board the wrong way. This seems to be consistent with the statements of the board about a breakdown in trust, but backstabbing sounds pretty dramatic to me.
Back up to ~60%. An article from today claims that OpenAI had an internal meeting, where they said they fired Altman for 1) Assigning the same project to 2 different people 2) Giving conflicting reviews pf a person. I keep fluctuating between "It can't be this stupid, there has to be more we don't know", to thinking about how the simplest, consistent explanation is exactly an accumulation of this kind of petty mishaps.