Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Nicolás Maduro re-election (or “re-elected” if you prefer) in Venezuela
10
37
250
2025
89%
chance

https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions

This is a prediction from Matthew Yglesias's 2024 predictions. I will be resolving early when possible but in cases of ambiguity, the ultimate source of truth is Matt's evaluation.

Matt predicts 80% for this question

Matt's calibration for reference:

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Made a time sensitive version of the question, so we can compare Manifold vs. Yglesias:

@StopPunting I want to avoid duplicates, but I'm also interested in doing this kind of test. I think the way it will work is that I note down all the percentages from the dashboard on a certain date, and then use that to compute a crier score eventually

@Shump Yeah sorry, since you were filling in the rest of the markets, I should have ran it by you first. Am I cool to keep linking (also going to link in the markets that were existing that you didn't make)? Figure my ones could just be a good starting point where we have hopefully reached a critical mass of traders to be treated as a legitimate comparison.

@StopPunting no problem

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