https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions
This is a prediction from Matthew Yglesias's 2024 predictions. I will be resolving early when possible but in cases of ambiguity, the ultimate source of truth is Matt's evaluation.
Matt predicts 80% for this question
Matt's calibration for reference:
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ190 | |
| 2 | Ṁ153 | |
| 3 | Ṁ112 | |
| 4 | Ṁ108 | |
| 5 | Ṁ82 |
@StopPunting I want to avoid duplicates, but I'm also interested in doing this kind of test. I think the way it will work is that I note down all the percentages from the dashboard on a certain date, and then use that to compute a crier score eventually
@Shump Yeah sorry, since you were filling in the rest of the markets, I should have ran it by you first. Am I cool to keep linking (also going to link in the markets that were existing that you didn't make)? Figure my ones could just be a good starting point where we have hopefully reached a critical mass of traders to be treated as a legitimate comparison.