Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Immigration/border/asylum legislation passes
Plus
29
Ṁ1428Jan 1
23%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions
This is a prediction from Matthew Yglesias's 2024 predictions. I will be resolving early when possible but in cases of ambiguity, the ultimate source of truth is Matt's evaluation.
Matt predicts 70% for this question
Matt's calibration for reference:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@Shump Fyi the substack post is gated. I don't think I can tell what the market criteria is from just what you've posted, but maybe I'm missing something. Can you paste the relevant text from the post?
Or is it really any legislation passes that has anything to do with those topics?
Related questions
Related questions
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: Immigration/border/asylum legislation passes
39% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: No Supreme Court vacancy
86% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Positive RGDP growth for each of the next four quarters (Q4 2023 - Q3 -2024)
80% chance
Will @MatthewYglesias's 2024 predictions perform at least as well as his 2023 predictions by his own assessment?
32% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Net electoral college bias continues to favor the GOP
85% chance
Will a Significant US Immigration Law be Passed in 2025?
51% chance
Matt Yglesias 2024 predictions: Will Democrats lose at least one senate seat outside of WV/MT/OH?
98% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Unemployment rate stays above 3%
97% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Pro-GOP electoral college bias diminishes from its 2020 level
96% chance
2024 predictions - Matthew Yglesias vs Manifold: At least one government shutdown
26% chance