Will the Cipher Challenge close with a percentage within the range of 10% to 90%?
ShitakiIntaki avatar
Wamba Ivanhoe
7
resolved Jul 3
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if the market percentage of the Cipher Challenge, once closed, displays a percentage within the range 10% to 90%, inclusive. (displayed percentages are rounded)

Resolves NO otherwise.

Get Ṁ500 play money

Related questions

Will this question resolve above 50%?
4mur1c4 avatar4mur1c4
50% chance
Will the free response (almost) free-for-all resolve on Sept. 25?
JosephNoonan avatarPlasma Ballin'
68% chance
Will this question close above 50%?
SimonVana avatarSimon Vana
50% chance
Will this question close below 57%?
TundraXD avatarTundra XD
56% chance
Will this question close above 70%?
ZalenZed avatarZalen Zed
47% chance
Will the CSU get more than 42%?
marktweise avatarMarktweise
18% chance
In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)
NathanpmYoung avatarNathan Young
66% chance
By 2025, will Paul Christiano have updated his P(AGI doom) to over 50%?
EA42 avatarEmbedded Agent
29% chance
Will the first option submitted in a free response question start out at <50% before the end of October?
JosephNoonan avatarPlasma Ballin'
32% chance
What % of alignment forum karma will be pro-interpetability vs anti this year?
Jono3h avatarJono
73% chance
There's a 70% chance this question will close with a yes.
Dvorakgigachad avatarDvorak gigachad
70% chance
Will this question have a percentage <50% after one day?
DieterRasse avatarDieter Rasse
56% chance
Will the running prediction go below 50% for at least 24 hours?
a11ce avatarsophia
50% chance
Will this question have a lower than 90% chance of resolving to "yes" when it closes?
lukres avatarlukres
88% chance
What percentage of people will believe in god on the next poll by Gallup International?
kirby avatarKirby Iwaki
What percentage of movies nominated for best picture will be options in the linked market? (read description)
DylanSlagh avatarDylan Slagh
59% chance
Will QACI alignment affect p(doom) more than 5%?
PARROTFEVER avatarPARROTFEVER SUPERSPREADER
24% chance
Will the VC 50 Years meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3?
PARROTFEVER avatarPARROTFEVER SUPERSPREADER
18% chance
Will mechanistic/transformer interpretability [eg Neel Nanda] end up affecting p(doom) more than 5%?
PARROTFEVER avatarPARROTFEVER SUPERSPREADER
55% chance
Will Claire Wang (@clairebookworm) meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 1%?
PARROTFEVER avatarPARROTFEVER SUPERSPREADER
20% chance

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1
UFTG avatarUFTG
Ṁ21
2
VictorLJZ avatarVictor Li
Ṁ21
3
Stralor avatarPat Scott🩴
Ṁ12
4
Odoacre avatarOdoacre
Ṁ8
5
CertaintyOfVictory avatarCertainty of Victory
Ṁ2
Comments
7 Positions
10 Trades