Will this question resolve above 50%?
Will this question close above 50%?
Will the free response (almost) free-for-all resolve on Sept. 25?
Will this question close below 57%?
Will this question close above 70%?
Will the CSU get more than 42%?
In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)
By 2025, will Paul Christiano have updated his P(AGI doom) to over 50%?
Will the first option submitted in a free response question start out at <50% before the end of October?
Will the running prediction go below 50% for at least 24 hours?
There's a 70% chance this question will close with a yes.
What % of alignment forum karma will be pro-interpetability vs anti this year?
Will this question have a percentage <50% after one day?
Will the VC 50 Years meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3?
Will this question have a lower than 90% chance of resolving to "yes" when it closes?
Will QACI alignment affect p(doom) more than 5%?
What percentage of people will believe in god on the next poll by Gallup International?
Will Claire Wang (@clairebookworm) meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 1%?
Will mechanistic/transformer interpretability [eg Neel Nanda] end up affecting p(doom) more than 5%?
Will Jeremy Nixon meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 5%?