Which core deity of Pathfinder will die in 2024?
19
452
1.8K
in 14 hours
Pharasma
-100.0%
on
Feb 15
Asmodeus
-100.0%
on
Feb 15
Cayden Cailean
-100.0%
on
Feb 20
Urgathoa
-100.0%
on
Feb 28
Erastil
-100.0%
on
Mar 6
Nethys
-100.0%
on
Mar 13
Zon-Kuthon
-100.0%
on
Mar 20
Desna
-100.0%
on
Mar 28
Irori
-100.0%
on
Apr 3
Rovagug
-100.0%
on
Apr 10
37%
Lamashtu
16%
Iomedae
11%
Sarenrae
10%
Shelyn
7%
Gorum
4%
Calistria
3%
Gozreh
2%
Torag
1.5%
Abadar
1.5%
Norgorber
1.2%
Erastil

Paizo has announced that in the lead-up to the release of War of Immortals (late 2024), one of the 20 core deities will die.

A list of known information about the god that dies has been collected here.

In the months leading up to the release, Paizo has started releasing blog posts, the "Godsrain Prophecies", which eliminate possibilities one by one (this will definitely update the market!). See the second post for example.

The list of gods eliminated from the list (confirmed by the Godsrain Prophecies blog posts), in order of confirmation:

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I'm changing my mind and putting a lot of money on Lamashtu now, because she's the only god not mentioned in any of the blog posts (the other 19 were each mentioned at least once), and this pattern doesn't seem accidental to me. I'm only 40% confident in this, though; it's also quite possible that Lamashtu is going to end up being the writer of the false prophecies or the eventual killer of the dying god.

Does anyone know why Iomedae isn't showing in the graph of predictions over time?

@ilzolende On markets with lots of options like this the graph only shows the first few by default, so it’s not too cluttered. If you select options then the graph will show them, so you can choose a subset and see how they’ve changed over time.

Oh, apparently as the creator I can choose what default order to use and it's that order that affects the graph. I changed it now from "Old" (order of creation) to "High %", which makes more sense.

I "seeded" this market with initial bets based on this public poll from a few months ago. I also decided to still include the known-false options based on the Godsrain posts, and simply bet as much money as I could on a NO option on them, to bring their percentages down (you can do it too, it's basically guaranteed ~1% profit).