Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, on or before December 31, 2026, the official model repository for MiniMax-H3 on Hugging Face (located at huggingface.co/MiniMaxAI/MiniMax-H3) becomes technically unavailable to access or download from any state within the United States.

"Unavailable" includes meeting any of the following conditions (or something substantially similar):

• The repository is deleted, taken down, or set to private.

• Hugging Face or the repository owner implements IP-based geo-blocking that actively prevents users in any specific US state (or the US nationwide) from loading the repository page or downloading the model weights.

• A user in an affected US state receives a blocking screen, a "not available in your region" notice, or a standard HTTP error (such as 403 Forbidden or 451 Unavailable for Legal Reasons) when attempting to access the repository or download the files from a local IP address (without a VPN).

Exceptions and Edge Cases:

• Licensing terms: The presence of restrictive licensing terms (such as the "Excluded Territories" clause in the MiniMax H3 Community License Agreement) does not trigger a YES resolution on its own, provided the files remain technically accessible and downloadable without active IP-blocking.

• Temporary outages: Temporary, unplanned site-wide outages on Hugging Face that affect all models will not trigger a YES resolution.

• If the repository is moved to a different official URL under the MiniMaxAI organization on Hugging Face, the new URL will be used for evaluation.

Background

MiniMax officially released its open-weights omni-modal AI video generation model, MiniMax-H3, in late July 2026. However, the model's community license agreement specifically lists the United States, European Union, United Kingdom, and South Korea as "Excluded Territories". Users in these jurisdictions are legally restricted from downloading, running, or deploying the model unless they formally apply for an authorization waiver.

According to developer relations reports, this regional exclusion is a legal shield against ongoing copyright lawsuits brought by major Hollywood studios (such as Disney, Warner Bros., and Universal Pictures) over the training data used for MiniMax's models. While the weights remain technically downloadable on Hugging Face for US users, ongoing legal pressure and potential state-level or federal compliance actions have sparked speculation about whether Hugging Face or MiniMax will eventually enforce strict IP geo-blocking inside the US.

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