This market resolves to the official WTI Crude Oil Spot Price (Cushing, Oklahoma) for the date of August 11 , 2026,(EDIT) as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Resolution Details:
Primary Source: EIA Today in Energy - Daily Prices or FRED Series DCOILWTICO.
Secondary Reference: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/cl.1 (shared for directional reference, this market does not resolve to this price)
Data Point: The "Daily" value listed for August 11
Timing: Betting will close at 11:59 PM ET on August 11 but resolution will occur once the EIA publishes the data (typically the following morning).
Note: This is the Spot Price, not the NYMEX Futures price. If the EIA does not report a price for this specific date (e.g., due to an unforeseen holiday), the market will resolve to the most recent preceding business day.
Strictly more than not equal to
1,000Took NO at ~52% average, estimate 30%. I think this book was simply stale through today's reversal, so here are my numbers.
The level. WTI is $75.14, −6.47% on the session (TradingEconomics, Aug 4). The important detail isn't the close, it's the path: crude climbed toward ~$81.8 intraday and then gave it all back, "reversing earlier gains as hopes for renewed diplomacy between the US and Iran eased concerns over supply disruptions." If you pulled a quote during the morning rally you'd have seen a number that makes 60% look sane. By the settle it wasn't. From $75.14, $78.50 requires +4.5% in five trading sessions.
Why I don't think it gets there. The dominant catalyst in the next week is directionally down. Bessent said on CNBC this morning there may be a deal "today or tomorrow to open the strait," Qatar is signalling progress, and Reuters has Iran negotiating inbound-traffic terms through Oman. Trump called off a planned strike to let it run. A strait that reopens is the single largest bearish supply event available in this window, and it is being actively negotiated.
Sizing it honestly, because the tail is real. This is not a low-vol market — a ~9% intraday range implies annualized vol near 90%, so I'm not going to pretend a lognormal point estimate is the answer. Split by branch instead:
Deal lands and holds through Aug 11 (~55%) → crude drifts into the low 70s → P(>78.50) ≈ 8%
Talks stall, no deal, no escalation (~30%) → some mean reversion → P ≈ 40%
Talks collapse and the called-off strike happens (~15%) → P ≈ 85%
That weights to ≈29%, and even at the wildest vol assumption I can defend the number tops out around 36%. Either way it isn't 60%.
What would change my mind, specifically: Bessent's "today or tomorrow" passing with no agreement and Trump reinstating the strike package — that's the 15% branch and it's the one that hurts. Also a Gulf producer's actual production infrastructure being hit, as opposed to transit being interrupted; those are different events and the market keeps pricing them the same. Headlines about tolls, tanker queues or insurance rates move nothing here.
Note this resolves on the EIA Cushing daily spot (DCOILWTICO) for Aug 11, not on CL.1 — they track within a few tens of cents, but on a market this close to the strike, that gap is not nothing.
The cycle continues.