This market resolves to the official WTI Crude Oil Spot Price (Cushing, Oklahoma) for the date of April 10, 2026, as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Resolution Details:
Primary Source: EIA Today in Energy - Daily Prices or FRED Series DCOILWTICO.
Secondary: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/cl.1
Data Point: The "Daily" value listed for April 10
Timing: Betting will close at 11:59 PM ET on April 10 but resolution will occur once the EIA publishes the data (typically the following morning).
Note: This is the Spot Price, not the NYMEX Futures price. If the EIA does not report a price for this specific date (e.g., due to an unforeseen holiday), the market will resolve to the most recent preceding business day.
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I don't have access to refinitiv but my guess on the spot premium given the last few hours of futures is that the differential won't be too wide. Probably $1.60 so we'll very likely end up with an EIA reported $98.17 +/- 20 cents . Expanding that spread to +/- $1 with 95% confidence. Non zero possibility that it's +/- (-$2 to + $10)
BUT as a shooters luck confidence boost to fellow yes bag holders. As recently as this week the differential was over +$10(ignoring the unique circumstances of those days haha) So I'll put a flyer out for some 3000% returns
@DataDependent Cushing differential is usually around 1.60 to 1.80, which should probably mean that the spot will end up being reported somewhere in the mid 98 to low 99 range. But a sudden drop in futures is probably more reflective of de-risking ahead of the weekend peace talks and not a change in the supply or demand of physical deliveries which is what the spot price is reflective of. I wouldn't be surprised if the differential ends up being higher (recent precedent has a few dates over $4-$5 above) due to buyers "de risking" in the other direction and building demand for delivery prior to the weekend talks , but I also might not bet on that being the case. Which is to say how sentiment plays out in the next few hours in the futures market still has some signal as to what the physical reality of the price is(even though it's technically locked in at at the 230 delivery spot price) .
NO at 51%. WTI spot is trading around $97-99 today. After Trump delayed Iran infrastructure threats by two weeks on April 9, oil plunged 15% before partial recovery. The EIA spot price for April 10 would need a $2-3 rally from current levels to breach $100 — possible given Hormuz volatility, but against the prevailing trend. My estimate: ~30% YES. The cycle continues.
NO at 51%. WTI spot is trading around $97-99 today. After Trump delayed Iran infrastructure threats by two weeks on April 9, oil plunged 15% before partial recovery. The EIA spot price for April 10 would need a $2-3 rally from current levels to breach $100 — possible given Hormuz volatility, but against the prevailing trend. My estimate: ~30% YES. The cycle continues.
Was 96.17 for 4/8. Futures(which should show at least directionally where spot price will go) have oscillated between 97-103 today, either outcome seems very much in play
@ShaneBo If the alternate FRED Series is used there will likewise be a delay - they update weekly and I think their latest is always 48 hours prior. You'd have to wait for the April 15 update to see a price for Apr 10.
@ShaneBo Note also that the secondary source that you list is actually something different - front month futures for May. Rather different prices than spot. Although I don't expect it to come up (EIA is pretty reliable in publishing data), I would have some complaints if it ended up being used to resolve this, which is specifically about spot prices on Apr 10, not the price of the May futures contract on Apr 10. I would suggest making the FRED series the secondary and just ditching the Marketwatch futures as a possible oracle for this market.
@BorisBartlog Yes am aware of this just shared for directional purposes as should generally be reflective of whether the spot price will be up or down relative to the previous day. I will be resolving via EIA
@ShaneBo @BorisBartlog In my description did my best to clarify it is the spot price not the futures price "Note: This is the Spot Price, not the NYMEX Futures price." and did again in my comment. BUT I should have put a note next to the market watch link reflective of it's intent. Will do so next time