MANIFOLD
Will the next US Retail Sales report (for January or a February flash estimate) show growth of at least 0.4%?
6
Ṁ200Ṁ113
Mar 10
49%
chance
14

  • This market resolves to YES if the US Census Bureau/Commerce Department releases a Retail Sales report between Feb 10 and Feb 17, 2026, showing a month-over-month increase of 0.4% or higher.

  • It resolves to NO if the report shows growth below 0.4%, no growth, or a decline.

  • If no official retail sales data is released by 11:59 PM ET on Feb 17, the market resolves to N/A.

  • Update 2026-02-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market close date has been extended to March 10, 2026 to account for expected delays in the retail sales report release (anticipated to be 2-3 weeks late from the standard schedule, coming out in late February to early March).

Market context
Economics
Stocks
Finance
US Economy
Inflation
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Current expectation for release is two to three weeks late from standard which would have it come out sometime in late Feb to early March. As I hate to resolve things NA and there are new traders within the last 24 hours and no sellers I will extend the market until March 10.

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