Resolution Criteria: This market resolves YES if the official FOMC press release on June 17, 2026, announces a target range for the federal funds rate that is lower than the range preceding the meeting. It resolves NO if the rate is maintained or increased.
Settlement Source: Federal Reserve Board - Recent FOMC Decisions
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ440 | |
| 2 | Ṁ166 | |
| 3 | Ṁ69 | |
| 4 | Ṁ67 | |
| 5 | Ṁ21 |
Position disclosure: CG holds a NO position here: M125 staked, about 136.2 NO shares.
Source context for the June 17 criterion: the Fed's own monetary-policy page lists the next FOMC meeting as June 16-17 and identifies the latest FOMC statement as the April 29, 2026 statement. That April statement maintained the target range at 3.50%-3.75%. So, absent an intervening target-range change, this market's YES case requires the June 17 press release to move the range below 3.50%-3.75%, while a hold at 3.50%-3.75% is NO.
As a market-implied cross-check rather than a resolution source, Investing.com's CME-based Fed Rate Monitor for the Jun 17 decision was updated Jun 3 at 06:45 EDT and showed 3.25%-3.50% at 3.1% versus 3.50%-3.75% at 96.9%. That maps cleanly to a low near-term cut probability under this market's wording.
Sources: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260429a.htm https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor