FINAL UPDATE:

Everyone, I am deeply sorry for the way that I handled this market. When GPT-4 Turbo first released, I was inactive on Manifold and didn’t even realize that it could qualify to resolve the market. People took me not resolving it YES upon the release of GPT-4 Turbo as a sign that it wouldn’t count, and started betting the market back down. I was also provided arguments for why it should/should not count. At this point, I still wasn’t interested in Manifold, so instead of delving deeper, I just responded to individual arguments, and I saw points for both NO and YES, so I decided I would resolve N/A instead of doing more research, because I couldn’t decide with that limited evidence.  If I had done more research like I should’ve, and looked at all of OpenAI’s relevant pages, I would have resolved YES. However, I felt that because of my indecision upon the initial release of GPT-4 Turbo, resolving YES would be unfair to those who bought NO a week after, thinking it wouldn’t count, therefore I was compelled to resolve N/A.

Here is my solution: The market will resolve YES, but I’m going to personally refund all the people who bought at least M10 of NO after the release of GPT-4 Turbo, but before my update stating that I would likely resolve YES. This will be done tomorrow. Here is the list of people, with the amount of mana they spent:

ww - 20

JohnSmith39f9 - 20

ManuelSalazar - 20

AntonBogun - 25

ChrisMills - 25

rocknrollfinance - 25

Grinchtachu - 30

JouniSeppanen - 30

StavrosKyriakidis - 30

KamilStaszewski - 40

OlegEterevsky - 50

tozac - 50

diegocaples - 50

5bd4 - 50

CellVendetta - 50

MaximPaschke - 50

JonathanColeman - 55

Grease - 60

StanRunge - 65

ChunglamWoo - 70

ArthurBrussee - 94

Seasons - 100

Simon74fe - 100

SanchitAgrawal - 100

jack_gibb - 100

vgnsh - 100

AlanFoster - 100

Be - 100

Cephalopod - 100

NamNguyencaf0 - 100

RaphaelP - 100

FinnMcArthur - 100

Arch1e - 110

FlameWing - 120

AndersKallberg - 150

Roosevelt55 - 200

FranciscoLecumberri - 200

Apple_ - 221

poetr - 405

AidinAbedi - 500

MarcelAguilarGarcia - 503

eclair4151 - 800

I will also refund Byrne Hobart 500 mana, because he bought a lot of YES when Turbo was released, and then was forced to sell some off at a loss.

If you aren’t on this list and bought NO after the Turbo release, please let me know.

Once again, I apologize for my error.

Sam Altman reportedly stated that "Cheaper and faster GPT-4" is OpenAI's top priority (paraphrased). Will the price of the GPT-4 API decrease in 2023?

"GPT-4" is defined as: Any product commonly referred to as "gpt-4" or similar by OpenAI. Names like "gpt-4-0314," "gpt-4-multimodal-2," "gpt-4," or "gpt-4-oct," would count as long as they are commonly referred to as GPT-4 and build off the original GPT-4 models. "gpt-4-plus," "gpt-4.5," or "gpt-4.1" would not count unless OpenAI regularly calls them GPT-4 and the consensus is that they are newer versions of gpt-4. Must be accessible by API, waitlisted is fine.

This specifically refers to the API, services like ChatGPT don't count, even if they switch to per-token pricing. You must be able to use it in code with an API key.

Resolves YES if:
• The price per 1k prompt tokens of any version of GPT-4 goes below $0.03 at any point before close of this market

• The price per 1k output tokens of any version of GPT-4 goes below $0.06 at any point before close of this market

Else, resolves 50% if:
• The price per 1k prompt tokens of a version of GPT-4 with a max text context length of 32K tokens or higher goes below $0.06 at any point before close of this market

• The price per 1k prompt tokens of a version of GPT-4 with a max text context length of 32K tokens or higher goes below $0.12 at any point before close of this market

Resolves N/A if:
• I cannot tell whether a model that may have satisfied the above conditions counts as gpt-4 or not on close date.
• There is credible evidence that a gpt-4 model that may have satisfied the above conditions is being offered through an API to specific people, but OpenAI has not confirmed this on close date.

Resolves NO if:
• None of the above conditions are true.