In the CNN exit poll in 2020, 18-44 voters went Biden +14, while 45+ voters went Trump +3. This would be 17 points of polarization. The Fox exit poll showed 20 points of polarization.

If the mean of the age polarization CNN and Fox exit polls in 2024 show a value less than 18.5, this market will resolve to yes. In the event that the exits do not provide these exact age ranges, I will try to compare other sources.