Will the U.S. Navy announce that it will purchase ships built in Japan or South Korea in 2024?
Will the U.S. Navy announce that it will purchase ships built in Japan or South Korea in 2024?
22
1kṀ1393Jan 1
10%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves yes based merely on an announcement, not necessarily on an actual purchase.
Chinese shipbuilding has about 350x as much capacity as the United States, but allied countries (SK and Japan) make up that gap. Protectionism and industrial policy force the US to forgo buying ships from their allies. Will the US fix this problem?

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will South Korea announce the direct provision of military equipment to Ukraine by June 30, 2025?
30% chance
Will the US Navy commission a new battleship by the end of 2025?
6% chance
Which European countries will deploy naval vessels to the Pacific in 2024 and/or 2025?
Will the US Navy commission a new battleship by the end of 2028?
9% chance
Will the UK deploy a carrier battle group to the Pacific in 2024 or 2025?
90% chance
Will a Royal Navy ship transit the Taiwan Strait in 2025?
59% chance
Will France deploy a carrier battle group to the Pacific in 2024 or 2025?
77% chance
Will Italy deploy a carrier battle group to the Pacific in 2024 or 2025?
80% chance
Will the US Navy commission more than four Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers?
51% chance
Will Taiwan commission two Hai Kun-class submarines by the end of 2027?
61% chance