"Public" means "publicly-traded" i.e. it has a stock ticker on a stock exchange.
It's not clear over what time horizon: It's not publicly traded right now, but maybe it will be by the end of the year, or maybe it will be in 2030. So without specifying a horizon the worst-case is you have to wait until the company shuts down to resolve the option.
But it's not publicly-traded right now. And it likely won't be publicly-traded by the end of the current market close.
@shankypanky Why was this bet up to 99%? @Avi From the release there’s no indication that it’s a public for profit company? It’s a research lab?
I think it's also important to clarify that presumably this and any other answers without an explicit timeframe resolve based on the status of the project now, rather than whether the project ever meets the proposition. (Otherwise e.g. "It will be at Google" couldn't have already resolved because theoretically Google could acquire it later.)
Can this resolve NO?
@RahulShah I leave it up to @SemioticRivalry to resolve, but I'll comment since I added that answer.
I think it should be a best guess about whether the person would consider themself a Manifold user. Best case would be to ask them directly; if someone claims to be a user, and has an account at all, I think that counts.
If it's a public figure with a publicly known account, I'd lean toward yes, even if it's not very active (so yes to your hypothetical example).
For unknown people (or anonymous public figure accounts), I'd expect someone would need to come forward, probably in the comments here, for us to know about it at all. That could be verified by a mod or market creator if there's doubt.
If someone says they are not a manifold user, or they've left the platform, or they deleted their account, or similar, then I'd say they are not a user for this market. But mostly, I think it's more fun to interpret this widely, the manifold user base isnt so large, if there's a reasonable association at all I'd say count it.
@Nat ugh i bought my position assuming he would qualify w/co-founder status taken into consideration. clarification please? (if he doesn't qualify, no biggie, I should have read the details before jumping the gun)
@Ophiuchus fwiw I thought the same thing, but sold out when I realized from here it was up for discussion.
oops—I missed the comment last night. sorry for the delay in response. according to his Twitter bio, Jan Leike was "ML Researcher, co-leading Superalignment @OpenAI" which is not an executive role. he was also never on the board.
I see he's been added by name, so that's the option to bet on if you think he may be involved in Ilya's project.
@Ophiuchus ah I stand corrected - I've deleted my twitter account, so thanks for screenshotting (and for the nudge)