A new species of penguin will be discovered in the Antarctic region by 2030
A new species of penguin will be discovered in the Antarctic region by 2030
3
110Ṁ1602030
7%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The discovery of the new penguin species will be the result of an expedition funded by a private organization passionate about wildlife conservation. The team will be led by a renowned ornithologist who has spent years studying penguins and has developed a keen eye for spotting new species. The team will use advanced technology such as drones and satellite imaging to locate and study the new species.
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This is a good example of how LLM-generated markets can go wrong... if every detail in the description is required for resolution, the chance is 0%. (For a start, I don't think there's a penguin ornithologist alive who's had the chance to develop an eye for new species!)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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